We have football to watch this week — sort of. Week 1 of the NFL preseason has arrived, which means we have plenty of meaningless games in store. However, it’s not impossible to find an edge just because the teams have no real incentive to win. Each week, I’ll post my top picks on Monday and provide an update before the game — you can check out all of my NFL preseason Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Texans-Patriots odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL preseason bet!
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our AFC East and AFC South previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Texans-Patriots Preseason Pick & Prediction
Texans-Patriots Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texans: -180 | Patriots: +155
Texans -3.5: -110 | Patriots +3.5: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
The total for this game has seen quite a bit of movement. Those who tailed my early-week column successfully bought low on the under after the news that C.J. Stroud would start caused it to increase. Since then, the 39.5 has plummeted to 36.5. While the under still has some value, it’s no longer as sharp of a play as it was on Monday.
Neither of these teams did much scoring last preseason. New England’s games saw an average of 34.3 points scored per contest, while Houston’s saw 30.3. Projecting them to combine for 40 was bold, which is why so much action has since come in on the under. Still, there’s a gap between what these teams averaged last year and where the market currently sits.
The Texans and Patriots may be very different teams than they were last year, but both should struggle to put points on the board come Thursday. Sure, the Texans now have C.J. Stroud at quarterback, but we’ll still see some of Davis Mills come Thursday. They also replaced head coach Lovie Smith with DeMeco Ryans, another defensive-minded coach. The Patriots have a new offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, but they’ll stick with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.
Despite the new tools and schemes that these teams will want to show off in the preseason, I’m skeptical. Jones and Zappe have unproven weapons like Kayshon Boutte, Tyquan Thornton and Malik Cunningham (who is attempting to make the roster as a receiver) and not much support in the backfield. Mills and Stroud have mostly unproven weapons as well — Nico Collins, John Metchie, Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson are surprisingly high on the depth chart because Houston’s best veterans at the position are Robert Woods and Noah Brown.
Let’s lock in the under because this number is too high. Two defensive coaches, several young quarterbacks and a lengthy list of inexperienced receivers do not a high-scoring game make. Again, those who locked in the under 39.5 early in the week got the best deal, but this total probably isn’t going to get much higher, so if you want action, lock in the under before it gets bid down further.
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Best Texans-Patriots Preseason Pick: Under 36.5 -110 at FanDuel
