A profit! That’s what we saw in this space for last week’s FanDuel Dinger Tuesday promotion thanks to Trey Mancini and Ryan McMahon. That’s the fun part of home run picks: We really only have to hit two for a profit and the bonus bets make it even more enticing.
Haven’t heard of Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
New to FanDuel? Get $150 in bonus bets if you are a first-time depositor and place a $5 wager.
How you attack Dinger Tuesday is up to you. My preference, which may differ from others, is to generally take some chances. I’m finding high totals where home runs will be expected in order to cash in on the bonus bets while hoping to connect on a few longer odds. This probably isn’t the space to find many +250 picks.
Let’s get to the home run bets.
Today’s Best MLB Bets: Home Runs for April 18
Jonathan India +560 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Taj Bradley might strike out 10 Reds tonight, but that doesn’t mean he can’t give up a home run or three while doing it. It’s a little risky attacking this matchup with Nick Lodolo pitching for the Reds, but the total of 9 is one of the highest on the board.
India is hitting leadoff, giving him the most opportunities to go yard. He’s hitting the ball harder than he ever has this season (small simple size disclaimer), but he’s missing the launch angle. Tonight’s the night he remembers to lift the ball and send it over the wall at a juicy price.
Jake Lamb +630 | Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
This space was reserved for Anthony Rizzo until FanDuel finally posted odds for Lamb. You mean I was waiting around all day for Jake Lamb home run odds? Yes, yes I was.
Look, I get it. He’s not what he was as an Arizona Diamondback. But if you’re left-handed in Yankee Stadium, sometimes it makes you look like an All-Star. Or at least like a home-run hitter. And with the wind blowing out to right, we’re counting on Lamb to hit one up in the jet stream. One plus: The Yankees only have one lefty in the pen, so the inevitable pinch-hitter in the late innings isn’t as inevitable this time.
Bobby Witt Jr. +560 | Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
We’re going to put Bobby Witt Sr. out in left field tonight so Bobby Jr. can hit it there.
Junior is off to a slow-ish start considering the lofty expectations. He owes us one, since he didn’t cash in this article two weeks ago.
Enter Nathan Eovaldi.
Witt Jr. feasted on fastballs in his rookie year but in the small sample size of 2023, he’s struggled. Maybe Eovaldi can help him change that, as the right-hander throws a heavy dose of heaters.
The wind is blowing to left. Turn on one, Bobby.
Carlos Santana +450 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
If you’re one of those weirdos who believes FanDuel and the rest of the sportsbooks have a Buffalo Wild Wings button in their office controlling the outcomes of games, well, here’s more proof that you’re wrong. FanDuel would like to fire whoever decided to put Jose Urena vs. Vince Velasquez in Coors Field on a Dinger Tuesday.
There are a lot of ways to go, and hopefully everyone goes deep so we can cash on the bonus bets. With a total of 13, plenty of scoring is expected. But you knew that when I said Jose Urena and Vince Velasquez were pitching.
Let’s go to Santana, a switch hitter who is hitting the ball hard this year. At +450, he’s around the same range as Jurickson Profar and Charlie Blackmon. He should hit in the middle of the order and get plenty of looks at Urena and a Rockies bullpen that was there to eat innings after last night’s debacle.
Starling Marte +600 | New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
If I’m betting on Jake Lamb, I can bet on a guy with a slugging percentage in his last seven days that’s lower than the opposing pitcher’s weight.
The early returns suggest this isn’t your older brother’s version of Clayton Kershaw. It’s only 18 innings, but his HR/9 is more than double last year’s number.
Marte will get his 20th career at-bat against Kershaw tonight, and should raise that slugging percentage (.375, but .217 in the last seven days) closer to the expected slugging percentage of .479. He’s hitting the ball hard and his launch angle is increasing. So will our bankrolls after tonight.
