FanDuel Sportsbook is once again running its “Dinger Tuesday” promotion on Tuesday nights. As a result, when looking for today’s best MLB bets, we’ll want to target home runs on FanDuel to cash in on the special offer.
Haven’t heard of Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
New to FanDuel? Get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 if you are a first-time depositor.
Today’s Best MLB Bets: Home Runs
Ian Happ +350 | Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Chicago’s lineup hasn’t been released as of publication, but it’s safe to assume that Happ will slot in near the top of the lineup. That’s key as we maximize our chances for a dinger. Happ loves hitting in Cincinnati, and he’ll face Reds right-hander Luis Cessa, who struggled last year. His HR% last season was a full point higher than the league average. Happ has more power against right-handed pitchers, making this a plus matchup, too.
This isn’t the best price on the market, but with the game’s total set to nine, we’ll eat the difference as a way to cash in not only on Happ but other potential home runs as well.
Trea Turner: +400 | Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
Is every pick going to be chalky? Maybe, keep reading to find out! But this a play against New York’s starter, Domingo German. Perhaps German turned a corner last year as his HR% and FB% improved. Or maybe it was a limited sample size. Let’s bet on some regression — homers may just plague him again this season.
Turner hits first tonight for the Phillies, giving him the most chances at German. The weather report calls for a slight wind in from right field, and while not significant, I’ll target a right-handed hitter going into left field.
This game has a total of 8.5, putting it in the top half of options for runs.
Michael Chavis: +560 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
You didn’t know Michael Chavis is on the Nationals now, but that’s OK. Attacking Nationals starter Chad Kuhl sounds profitable, so we’re going with all-or-nothing Chavis. He gets southpaw Josh Fleming tonight, which isn’t great. Fleming is coming off a strong performance in his first start, but Chavis has more power against lefties than he does righties, so it’s a chance worth taking in his first appearance of the year.
Just don’t Google Chavis’ name. The fact one of the suggestions is, “What happened to Michael Chavis?” doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. What happened was he got a chance with the Nationals and used it to hit a homer on Tuesday night. We hope.
If that doesn’t happen, a random Rays hitter should go deep once or twice to make up for it. That’s what the Rays do.
Bobby Witt Jr. +470 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Finally, a number that is one of the better ones available in the market. DraftKings has this at +475, but others are at +425. Value!
Witt Jr. is off to a slow start, but he went 2-for-3 on Monday while serving as the designated hitter. He’s back at shortstop on Tuesday and at the top of the lineup. That may not mean much, but what does is his matchup: he’ll take on Yusei Kikuchi!
Although Kikuchi didn’t give up a home run all spring, his 5.1 HR% in 2022 was significantly higher than the leave average rate of 3.3%. Add in big winds out to left field, and this is a great recipe for Witt Jr. and the rest of the hitters.
Now, just hope Mother Nature doesn’t rain us out.
Juan Yepez +560 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Yepez gets a start in his first game with the big-league team. He was called up after Lars Nootbar hit the IL. Yepez will bat eighth in the order, which means he’ll need to take advantage of his potentially limited opportunities. Fortunately, Yepez tends to do just that. He hit the ball in the air more than the league average, and he hits home runs at a better-than-average rate.
He meets rookie left-hander Dylan Dodd in a game with a total of 10. Both offenses have good matchups, but we’re taking a chance on Yepez at a number that’s significantly better than the rest of the market.
