Jordan Westburg hasn’t tapped into his power yet, but it’s coming. Ketel Marte meets an old NL West foe in a matchup in which he’s experienced success. That makes both players interesting options for today’s home run picks and predictions.
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Let’s get into why Jordan Westburg and Ketel Marte are two of our favorite home run picks of the MLB schedule on Saturday.
Today’s Home Run Picks & Predictions: Saturday, July 1
Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles, +750 (FanDuel)
We’re trusting the model and going with the numbers on this one. Westburg showed big power in Triple-A, hitting 18 home runs in 67 games this season. Today’s matchup is against Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober, who has given up more dingers to right-handed hitters than lefties this year. Ober only allowed three home runs in over 40 innings between April and May, but surrendered five long balls in June (29.1 innings).
While all of that is nice, we’re trusting the market as the biggest reason to bet on Jordan Westburg. Take a look at OddsShopper’s screen above. Westburg’s odds are as low as +450 at Caesars and +500 at DraftKings and PointsBet. But FanDuel is way off the rest of the market at +750. We’re trusting the other four are closer to the true odds and grabbing the off-market number at FanDuel.
Best Home Run Pick: Jordan Westburg, +750
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks, +390 (Caesars)
Marte gets to see Tyler Anderson on Saturday, a pitcher he’s familiar with from Anderson’s time with the Rockies and Dodgers. He’s seen good success in a small sample size with a .444 batting average in 27 at-bats, including two home runs. This is not a good version of Anderson, albeit he’s better than earlier in the year.
Anderson allowed six home runs in April, but cut that to just one in May and two in June. However, FanGraphs projects that home run rate to jump again, so we’ll hope to be early on the regression. Weather will help, too, with winds expected to blow out slightly to left field.
Using OddsShopper, we can shop for the best line, which is +390 at Caesars.
Best Home Run Pick: Ketel Marte (+390)
