The Houston Astros find themselves in unfamiliar territory — down 2-0 in a best-of-seven series. They’ve never won a playoff series after losing the first two games. It starts tonight as they try to make a comeback. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Astros-Rangers on Wednesday, Oct. 18.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, Oct. 18
Astros-Rangers Prop Bets
When: 8:03 p.m. ET
Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington
We’re headed for a different route here in Astros-Rangers Game 3. I will be wagering 0.75 units on Astros first five innings +0.5 at -118 and another 0.25 units on Astros first five moneyline at +116 — both prices coming via FanDuel. This is ultimately betting on Cristian Javier versus Max Scherzer. Scherzer hasn’t pitched in over a month, and his recent rehab assignment is pointing him in the direction of 75 to 80 pitches. I’m not a believer in Scherzer being able to limit the top of the Astros order. This will the second time this season that Scherzer will be facing off against the Astros, while Javier has only met the Rangers once this season.
Javier has turned heads once again in the playoffs. After a lackluster regular season with a 4.56 ERA and another year with a below-average walk rate, Javier seems to light a fire under himself come October. Last postseason, Javier had a 0.71 ERA that included being part of a no-hitter in the World Series. Fast forward to this October, and it’s been much of the same. Even though it was just one game, Javier dominated an underrated Twins lineup. He allowed six baserunners, five being via walks, but stranded all six. Javier should outduel a returning Scherzer that allowed seven runs to the Astros in his second-to-last start before his IL stint.
Best Astros-Rangers Prop Bets: Houston Astros +0.5 First Five Innings (-118 at FanDuel), Houston Astros First Five Innings Moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
Astros-Rangers Player Prop Bets
If there’s one player you want at the plate in the postseason, it may be Yordan Alvarez. Bryce Harper would like a word, but he doesn’t play today, so we’ll settle with Alvarez. He is hitting .391 with a slugging percentage of 1.261 and six home runs — all in the top five among hitters this postseason.
Alvarez will match up against Scherzer, and the two have prior history. In five career plate appearances, Alvarez has been walked once, singled and crushed a home run. It’s no secret that the Rangers may pitch around Alvarez tonight. He was walked in Game 2 and was pitched around in Game 1, but LHP Jordan Montgomery made great put-away pitches to punch out Alvarez three times. Scherzer will be locked and loaded on getting Alvarez out unless a situation calls for an intentional pass.
Walks can kill this player prop, but Alvarez needs one swing to cash this prop. He’s cashed this line in five of six playoff games and has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 15 games. Feel confident backing the most pulverizing hitter in baseball in the most crucial game of the season.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-130 at DraftKings)
Astros-Rangers Home Run Pick
Thanks to OddsShopper’s tools, you can find Alvarez at +340 to hit a home run on FanDuel as a +EV spot. But we’ll pivot to another Astros hitter who is seeing the ball well: Michael Brantley. Brantley has gotten limited work this postseason, but he’s made the most of his opportunity. In 14 at-bats, Brantley has five hits, including a home run to conclude the Twins-Astros series. Game 1 against the Rangers was much of the same. He had two hits, including an RBI double that scored Alvarez.
Brantley is not known for his ability to hit home runs, but his prior success against Scherzer gives me enough faith to make this a play. In 49 at-bats, Brantley has three home runs and nine other extra-base hits. Shop around for the best price for this prop, as FanDuel is offering this at +830 while DraftKings is as low as +700.
Best Astros-Rangers Home Run Bet: Michael Brantley +830 at FanDuel
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