The World Series is right around the corner. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers will play a series-deciding Game 7 tonight, but before the first pitch in that game, we’ve got a potentially series-deciding Game 6 between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies. Let’s dive right into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Monday, Oct. 23. For more picks and props, check out OddsShopper’s MLB shop pages.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Monday, Oct. 23
Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bet
When: 8:03 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Watch: FOX/FS1
Isaiah’s Target: Corey Seager at FanDuel
The Texas Rangers will get to take on the RHP Cristian Javier and the Houston Astros in Game 7. Javier has put together a pair of winning performances thus far, but I’m fading him — the wheels have to come off at some point. The 26-year-old Javier owns a 4.48 xERA (38th percentile) and a .230 xBA (67th percentile). Those aren’t great numbers. Javier has struggled with power and has coughed up 26 actual and 30.8 expected home runs on the year.
Although a bad start for Javier would likely get him pulled — this is a Game 7, after all — I have enough faith in LHH Corey Seager to get the job done regardless of who is on the mound. Seager is slashing .217/.217/.565 against Javier with four extra-base hits and two home runs. He has been having a shaky ALCS but owns a .312 xBA (99th percentile), .608 xSLG (98th percentile) and a 53.2% hard-hit rate (96th percentile). Look for him to feast in this spot.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 at FanDuel
Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 5:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Watch: TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Kyle Schwarber at Bet365
I know that LHH Kyle Schwarber has already made history several times this postseason for the sheer number of balls he has mashed over the fence. History favors him not hitting another. But with him up to five homers across five games in the NLCS, I can’t turn down the chance to buy him at odds of +330 to hit a sixth. Schwarber takes on RHP Merrill Kelly tonight against whom he has two home runs in 10 at-bats.
New to bet365? Check out our bet365 bonus codes — turn $5 into $150 in bonus bets ➚➚
Selling Schwarber at odds of +330 just seems like a mistake to me. First, there is a simple market-based reason: Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at +317. Second, Schwarber ranks second in the MLB in both actual (52) and expected (47) home runs this year. He went yard against Kelly twice last week, once against a fastball, and again against a changeup. The wind may be more favorable in Houston, but I’m still trusting Schwarber as my top home run pick tonight.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Kyle Schwarber +330 at bet365
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today.
