The NL Divisional Round advances with two games on tap this evening. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, both of whom won 100-plus regular-season games, find themselves in 0-1 holes to division rivals. Will they bounce back, or will the road teams return to their home stadiums with 2-0 advantages? Let’s dive right into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Monday, Oct. 9. For more picks and props, check out OddsShopper’s MLB shop pages.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Monday, Oct. 9
Phillies-Braves Player Prop Bet
When: 6 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Watch: TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Ronald Acuna Jr. at DraftKings
Monday’s Phillies-Braves game has become a must-win matchup for the home team. Atlanta dropped Game 1 at home, and if they leave Truist Park without a win, the MLB’s best offense will almost certainly suffer an early exit for a second straight season. But I don’t expect the Braves to go down like that, especially not with RHP Zack Wheeler on the mound today. Wheeler has been a great pitcher this season, recording a 3.21 xERA (88th percentile) and .220 xBA (68th percentile), but he has sometimes struggled against the Braves. He allowed a 3.32 ERA with a slash line of .186/.260/.414 to them this year.
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No member of the Braves has fared better against Wheeler this season than RHH Ronald Acuna Jr. The superstar slugger has made 10 plate appearances against Wheeler in 2023, through which he owns seven total bases. Acuna is slashing .261/.292/.609 against Wheeler for his career as well. For all of Wheeler’s excellent production this season, Acuna has been better — his .365 xBA (100th percentile) and .660 xSLG (100th percentile) speak for themselves. Back Acuna to record multiple bases on Monday night, which you can boost from -120 (54.6%) to +104 (49%) for the first $25 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases -120 (+104 Boosted) at DraftKings
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 9 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Watch: TBS
Isaiah’s Target: J.D. Martinez at FanDuel
The last time RHP Zac Gallen took the mound at Dodger Stadium, he coughed up four home runs in the August heat. With temperatures of around 72.1 degrees and 9.2 mph winds blowing out on tap for this evening’s game, a similarly bad outcome could be in store for him tonight. Gallen managed to not surrender a homer in the Wild Card round, but that was his first-ever postseason start, so he remains untested in October. In the regular season, Gallen recorded a 4.18 xERA (48th percentile) and .253 xSLG (33rd percentile) while coughing up 22 actual and 23.5 expected home runs, 27 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium.
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Although 35-year-old RHH J.D. Martinez has seen better days, he is a sharp home run pick for tonight’s action. Martinez may not have as good of a batting average as he once did, but he is hitting for power far more often. He owns a .551 xSLG, his best since 2019, and a 55.1% hard-hit rate, the highest of his career. Martinez mashed 33 actual and 32.7 expected home runs in just 113 games this year, and 35 of those hits would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. He has only one hit, a single, across three career plate appearances against Gallen, but their mutual unfamiliarity could be an asset for the veteran. He is trading at odds of +390 (20.4%) at FanDuel but is +333 (23.1%) to go yard at Pinnacle.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.D. Martinez +390 at FanDuel
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