We have MLB action all night long. First pitch on the East Coast will begin at 5:07 p.m. ET, with the Phillies looking to take Game 3 at home against the Braves. To follow, the Twins and Dodgers will look to fight off elimination in their respective series. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Wednesday, Oct. 11.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, Oct. 11
Braves-Phillies Player Prop Bets
When: 5:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Justin’s Targets: Bryce Harper
News has just released that RHP Bryce Elder will start for the Braves in Game 3. His leash is yet to be determined, but we can expect to see fellow RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver at some point in the game if Elder gets in trouble early. Nonetheless, backing Bryce Harper in this game is a must.
Harper is a right-handed killer who is a matchup nightmare, especially in October. The problem with backing Harper is he’s always a candidate to be walked. His walks are priced at -125, while in Game 2 that was +110. It would not shock me if the Braves pitch around Harper to get to the right-handed batters hitting behind him. It took till the ninth inning of the last game for the aggressive Harper to be issued a free pass. Luckily for Harper bettors, it counts as a win if Harper is intentionally walked.
Through the first two games of this series, Harper has been walked a combined three times. The first two games in the Marlins series were much of the same. He was walked twice, which included an intentional walk. For the price of -125 on BetMGM, scale down to a half unit.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-125 at BetMGM)
Astros-Twins Player Prop Bets
When: 7:07 p.m. ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis
Justin’s Targets: Joe Ryan
Before the season, there was a debate whether Joe Ryan was the ace of the Twins staff — the same staff that has Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray throwing the ball. That debate has been more than settled after this season. Ryan has struggled immensely coming into this start. Ryan has allowed opponents to hit for a near .300 average and 17 earned runs in his last five starts. His previous outing was the icing on the cake. At Coors Field, Ryan gave up six runs on eight hits in five innings. This is the biggest start of Ryan’s young career, and unfortunately, it’s coming against a familiar opponent in the Houston Astros.
The core of this Astros lineup has seen Ryan enough to give me the confidence to pay the juice on this earned run prop. In two starts this season against the Astros, Ryan allowed four and five earned runs while walking four batters. The right-handed batters are where I expect Ryan to struggle, as he should see at least five of them. He’s allowing RHB to hit for a .269 average this season compared to LHB hitting .222. Unfortunately for Ryan, the two lefties in the middle of the order are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
The leash will undoubtedly be short for Ryan. Books are laying his over/under on outs recorded at 14.5. If you’re looking for the best price in that department, head to Caesars Sportsbook, where OddsShopper’s tools helped distinguish it as a +EV spot. Instead, we’ll turn to Ryan’s earned run prop set at just 1.5. Caesars is laying a juicy price at -167 on the over, while DraftKings is -155.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Joe Ryan Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-155 at DraftKings)
Dodgers-Diamondbacks Home Run Pick
When: 9:07 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Justin’s Target: Christian Walker
The league leader in home runs allowed in 2023 will take the mound to conclude the slate and possibly the Dodgers season. Veteran RHP Lance Lynn was bought into Los Angeles to be a significant piece in the Dodgers rotation that continues to deal with injuries and off-the-field issues. Lynn allowed 44 home runs during the regular season, including seven in his last five starts.
Lynn has minimal history against the Diamondbacks lineup since he didn’t face them in the second half of the season when he was acquired at the trade deadline. But Lynn has struggled against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in regard to giving up home runs, so we have the luxury of picking a top hitter in the Diamondbacks order.
Christian Walker is our top home run pick on the slate. In a close-out game at home, where Walker sees the ball much better, and that offers an excellent opportunity for bettors to cash in on his price at +400 on FanDuel. The rest of the major market has Walker set at +36o or worse.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Christian Walker +400 at FanDuel
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