The Phillies jumped out to a 5-0 lead in Game 1 and never looked back. Kudos to the Diamondbacks for fighting back, but they ultimately lost 5-3 and will look to avoid dropping the first two games on the road of the best-of-seven series. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Diamondbacks-Phillies on Tuesday, Oct. 17.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Tuesday, Oct. 17
Diamondbacks-Phillies Player Prop Bets
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Justin’s Targets: Bryce Harper
Pitching to Bryce Harper this postseason has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers. He’s hitting .409 with four home runs and an on-base percentage of .567. Walking him is the smart way to go about facing the slashing lefty. Last night, Zac Gallen pitched to Harper in the third inning with first base open, and he paid the price. Harper roped a single into right field, and Trea Turner flew around the bases to score. Gallen ranks in the 83rd percentile in walk rate but felt uneasy pitching to him and walked him on five pitches to start the fifth inning after what he did to him earlier in the game. Fast forward to tonight — Diamondbacks Game 2 starter Merrill Kelly has a much worse walk rate than Gallen and struggles with command against lefties.
Kelly had another solid season for the Diamondbacks. He posted a 3.29 ERA and a career-high strikeout rate. On the other hand, his xERA ranked in the 52nd percentile, and his walk rate of 9.4% was a career high. Against the Phillies and Harper, who ranked in the top 12 in walk rate to RHP in the last 30 days, Kelly may have an issue with his control, as he’s walked at least two batters in six straight games and four against the Phillies in June.
Harper has crushed this player prop market this postseason. Through seven games, Harper has been walked eight times and in all but two games. Bank on Kelly and the Diamondbacks preferring to pitch to righties Alec Bohm or Nick Castellanos if the Phillies decide to switch up the lineup.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-105 at BetMGM)
Diamondbacks-Phillies Player Prop Bets
If you want to lay the juice, Nick Castellanos is -150 on DraftKings to record a hit. I’ll pivot it to the hits + runs + RBIs market that has been successful for us this postseason. Castellanos may be the hottest hitter on the planet. He’s recorded 10 hits this postseason while cashing this prop in four straight games.
Kelly is similar to Gallen in the home and away splits department. Kelly posted a 2.59 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP at home during the regular season. On the road, it was a different story. He had a 4.07 ERA and allowed righties to hit .226. There’s good reason to believe Castellanos could move up to the 4-hole tonight behind Harper with the way he’s slugging. Alec Bohm made solid contact last night but failed to reach base.
Only on DraftKings is Castellanos boosted to +100 to record a hit. You’ll also find the best price for Castellanos over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +120. He cashed this player prop in 61% of the home games this season behind the Philadelphia faithful, compared to just 49% on the road.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+120 at DraftKings)
Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Pick
Ketel Marte headlines an underrated Diamondbacks lineup that may have an answer for Aaron Nola, who has been surgical in two starts this postseason. Marte had a 383-foot lineout last night that had an xBA of .710, according to baseballsavant.com. His single in the eighth inning also reached over 100 mph off the bat.
Even though Nola has been masterful in two outings this postseason, some believe he may struggle tonight against a Diamondbacks team that has hit 14 home runs this postseason and has the second-most hits behind the Phillies. Nola allowed 32 home runs this season and could struggle against the switch-hitting Marte, who has already hit a home run off Nola in his career.
Best Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Bet: Ketel Marte +480 at FanDuel
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