We hit on all angles of last night’s Astros-Rangers game. The day before, we cashed in on Bryce Harper to walk in his first plate appearance. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Thursday, Oct. 19.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bets for Thursday, Oct. 19
Phillies-Diamondbacks Player Prop Bet
When: 5:07 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Stop me if you’ve heard me ramble on about Bryce Harper being walked. I still am constantly shocked when teams decide to pitch to him with a base open. In Game 1, Zac Gallen had first base open with Trea Turner on second base, and Harper roped a single for an RBI. In his next at-bat, Gallen walked Harper on five pitches. Ironic. The next test for Harper will be rookie Brandon Pfaadt.
Pfaadt is in a tough position on Thursday. The 25-year-old will be handed the ball in a must-win game with the Diamondbacks down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series. Anything over four innings and less than two runs will be a sufficient start for Pfaadt after the Diamondbacks’ two top arms gave up six home runs combined. Let’s dive more into Pfaadt and how Harper is a candidate to be issued a free pass today.
This is a play I most likely stay away from in the regular season given Pfaadt’s 82nd-percentile walk rate, but the postseason is a different animal. Pfaadt will likely see Harper twice today and be cut loose to the bullpen after four innings. Most major sportsbooks have his pitching outs line at 11.5, with BetMGM offering the under at +105, which OddsShopper’s tools have distinguished as a +EV spot. Even with Pfaadt’s low walk rate, he may get the sign to put Harper on intentionally or see if he’ll chase the first two pitches outside the zone. If Harper does bite, we then will see Pfaadt battle him.
Harper will look to make it seven out of nine games this postseason being issued a walk. He is hitting .385 with four home runs and nine total walks. Be kind to us, Arizona, and give Harper a free pass.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-115 at BetMGM)
Phillies-Diamondbacks Prop Bet
The Phillies offense is a train, and we get nine innings of it on Thursday. With that being said, we’re finding new ways to back them. We’re targeting the Phillies team total of over 4.5 runs, a total it has hit in both games in this series, and now it gets the worst of the three pitchers on the mound.
We dove into Pfaadt above and how difficult this Phillies offense will make it on him. They’ve faced Jesus Luzardo, Spencer Strider twice, Max Fried, Gallen and Merrill Kelly this postseason and have looked sharp at the plate. Even in the second game against Strider, where he allowed three runs, they threatened almost every inning. The same occurred in Game 3 against Kelly. He surrendered four runs, and that should’ve been more with his three walks.
It may not be the Citizens Bank Park atmosphere, but don’t be surprised to see a multiped of Phillies fans in the stands. This is a 2:00 game for Diamondbacks fans, and tickets are hovering below $10. The Phillies offense should continue that momentum until Game 3 on the road and be one game away from returning to the World Series. Yes, I’m sprinkling the Phillies moneyline, with the best price on FanDuel at -122. Use OddsShopper’s tools to shop the best prices for game and player props.
Best MLB Prop Bet: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-115 at FanDuel), Phillies Team Total Over 6 Runs (+188 at Caesars Sportsbook) = .50 units
Astros-Rangers Player Prop Bet
When: 8:03 p.m. ET
Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington
I’m backing Yordan Alvarez again. Like last night, this checks all the boxes. Alvarez has a great history against LHP Andrew Heaney. In 17 plate appearances, Alvarez has been walked three times and has four total hits. With this player prop, you’re not only betting on the hitter but the offense surrounding him — good news for us since Heaney has struggled against the top of the Astros lineup. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu are a combined 28-for-91 off Heaney for a batting average of over .300.
Like Pfaadt and his short leash, Heaney will get the same treatment, even with a game tomorrow. It’s do or die during this time in the postseason, and managers can’t afford to keep starters in the game to get rocked. Heaney will hand the ball off to an underwhelming bullpen that ranked in the bottom 10 in ERA.
Yordan took till the seventh inning to cash this bet last night, but all it takes is one swing of the bat with him. Look for him to make it seven out of eight games this postseason, cashing this player prop and tying this series at two games apiece.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings)
Astros-Rangers Home Run Pick
This game has the makings of featuring a lot of runs. Last night, we saw a combined three home runs and 13 runs. More of the same is on deck tonight with two lesser-degree pitchers on the mound. Heaney will take the ball for Texas, while RHP Jose Urquidy will take the mound for Houston.
The Astros back end of the bullpen is elite; there’s no debating that. It used its top three arms last night, but there’s a likelihood we will see them again. But I’m banking on Urquidy seeing Adolis Garcia at least twice at the plate and hitting a home run.
Garcia and Urquidy have had their fair share of battles in the AL West. Garcia hit a solo shot off him last season and another hit earlier that season. He’s just 2-for-11 off Urquidy, but the pop in his bat can’t be questioned. He has 39 home runs this season, with 30 coming off right-handed pitchers — the whole Astros bullpen is right-handed pitchers. Yes, they didn’t roster one lefty other than Framber Valdez in this series.
Best Astros-Rangers Home Run Bet: Adolis Garcia +300 at FanDuel
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