We’ve made it to October. Four games on Tuesday open up the MLB playoff slate with plenty of aces taking the mound. If this is your first time betting on the MLB playoffs, be wary of short leashes for starting pitchers, especially in the first round where the series is best out of three. When it comes to advancing through the playoffs, home runs are arguably the most important factor. Look at the Philadelphia Phillies from last season. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Tuesday, Oct. 3.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet
Rangers-Rays Player Prop Bet
When: 3:08 p.m. ET
Where: Tropicana Field, Florida
Justin’s Target: Jordan Montgomery at FanDuel
Line shopping will be crucial for the next month. Books always have different prices, and we’ve found a significant discrepancy at one book for this prop: Jordan Montgomery to record under 15.5 outs against the Tampa Bay Rays. We’re stealing at this price of -114, while the rest of the market, DraftKings and Caesars, is laying it at -150.
There’s no disputing that Montgomery has been a workhorse for the Rangers since being acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline. With multiple injuries at the top of the rotation, the Rangers must trust Montgomery in this spot. I don’t have to, and I won’t. All those games in which he ate up innings in the last month go out the window during this time of year.
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Two wins are all it takes to advance to the next round. This means the leash will be as short as it could be. Managers cannot take risks when it comes to leaving in their starters and will look to play matchups early in the game. Luckily for non-Montgomery truthers, the Tampa Bay offense is lethal against LHPs. During the last month, when the Rays were fighting for the AL East title, they hit at a top-5 average and top-11 strikeout rate against LHP. They’re an underrated group that consistently puts together quality at-bats, which is why they’re -160 on DraftKings to advance to the next round. Give me all the Rays shares in this game and the rest of the series, as the Rangers blew their chance at the AL West title.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Jordan Montgomery Under 15.5 Outs -114 at FanDuel
Marlins-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 8:08 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Pennsylvania
Justin’s Target: Nick Castellanos at DraftKings
The Phillies offense is the one everybody wants to watch. Ticket prices are through the roof, and this series is scheduled for the primetime spot for the whole first round. Six hitters in the order have hit at least 20 home runs. Now we have to pick the right one. It’ll be difficult against the Miami Marlins Game 1 starter Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is one of the MLB’s most underrated left-handed arms but was challenged by the Phillies twice during the regular season. He gave up a combined 12 hits and five earned runs across 12.1 innings. His outs line is set at 14.5 with vig on the over, so the thinking is that he may only see the top of the Phillies lineup twice.
Let’s turn to the hitter we’re backing today to hit a home run: Nick Castellanos. Castellanos was only one of two Phillies to make the All-Star team this season and has been a consistent bat in the middle of the Phillies order. He’s hot at the right time as well. In the last 30 days, Castellanos hit at a .333 clip with two home runs in 24 at-bats. His history against Luzardo is encouraging for Castellanos bettors. In nine plate appearances, Castellanos has two hits and two walks. With Luzardo presumed to have a short leash, Castellanos will likely see another left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen since right-handed batters surround him.
DraftKings is the best spot to wager on this home run bet. They’re offering a 25% Wild Card boost to take this from +425 to +531. If you don’t have access to DraftKings, FanDuel is just slightly worse at +420.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Nick Castellanos +425 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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