Game 2 of the Wild Card round means four teams face elimination today. The Twins and Phillies looked dominant in their respective games, while the Rangers and Diamondbacks pulled off upsets against two of the top pitchers in the game. Remember, with this being an elimination game, managers will pull the plug fast on their starting pitchers. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Wednesday, Oct. 4.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Wednesday, Oct. 4
Rangers-Rays Player Prop Bet
When: 3:08 p.m. ET
Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Justin’s Target: Zach Eflin at BetMGM
Unders are going to be the way to go this postseason, but FanDuel is offering a prime middle opportunity for Zach Eflin. His outs line is 14.5 at -128, while the rest of the market is 15.5. He has a real shot to go five innings today and leave it to one of the best bullpens in the game. The best-case scenario is Eflin lands on 15 outs and we cash both. The worst-case scenario is losing on the vig, but that’s not where I’m headed for that game. Let’s dive into my favorite player prop for Rangers-Rays.
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Zach Eflin was bought into Tampa Bay this season from the Phillies for this exact scenario — the season on the line with their backs against the wall. Eflin has been one of the best offseason acquisitions this season. His xERA and xBA rank in the 75th percentile and his strikeout stuff has been revamped. His command has always been his strong suit, as he’s ranked in the top 10 in BB% in the last three seasons. His low walk rate doesn’t help this prop, but this makes the most sense to me with an anticipated short leash and none of his other props playable.
This will be the first time Eflin will face off against the Rangers this season and against most of their lineup in his career. Yesterday, the Rangers offense had Tyler Glasnow in a blender. The middle and bottom of the lineup showed out in a big way, and that’s what teams need to advance. 21-year-old Evan Carter registered two hits and two walks in his playoff debut, while Leody Taveras also had a two-hit game. That will be tough to replicate today against Eflin, who is averaging 1.16 strikeouts per inning at home. Long counts and tough at-bats are the name of the game in October. Back Eflin and his postseason experience in this elimination game.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Hits Allowed -105 at BetMGM
Marlins-Phillies Home Run Pick
When: 8:08 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Justin’s Target: J.T. Realmuto at FanDuel
Who would’ve thought the Marlins-Phillies game last night would feature zero home runs? Jesus Luzardo was hit hard, but none left the park. Against fellow left-hander Braxton Garrett, that changes. Garrett will no doubt have a short leash tonight. His outs prop is set at 14.5, and this will be the third time he’ll see the Phillies offense this season. The first two meetings went differently than planned. Across 10 innings, Garrett allowed 12 hits and six runs. He was pitching extremely solid until his last start of the season against the woeful New York Mets, where he lasted just four innings and allowed two home runs — moving him just outside the top 50 in home runs allowed.
If you tuned into the game last night, the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park is overwhelming for opposing teams. The crowd is on their feet, lifting the Phillies’ offense from the start. The most challenging decision now is picking which hitter to back. J.T. Realmuto fits the mold. After struggling from the plate at the beginning of September, Realmuto put together three multi-hit games to conclude the season, including two home runs. He was huge during last season’s postseason run, and I expect much of the same as the Phillies look to close the series out tonight.
In limited at-bats against Garrett, Realmuto has the edge. He has a home run, a double, and a single in seven at-bats. Garrett’s kryptonite is right-handed batters, as they’ve hit 17 of the 20 home runs he has allowed this season. Pick your poison with which Phillies hitter you want to back, but I trust Realmuto in this spot against his former team.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: J.T. Realmuto +520 at FanDuel
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