The Divisional Round series will get underway with action starting at 1:03 E.T. in Baltimore. It’s important to remember that this series is best of five instead of best of three. Let’s dive straight into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Saturday, Oct. 7.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Saturday, Oct. 7
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Player Prop Bet
When: 9:20 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Justin’s Target: Merrill Kelly at BetMGM
Both National League series have a chance to be thrilling. Four divisional foes will go head-to-head for a chance at the pennant. The Phillies-Braves series may take most bettors’ attention, but fading Merrill Kelly in this spot against a team he has seen three times during the regular season is a must-bet for me.
Kelly was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball during the regular season. His 3.29 ERA ranked top 15 amongst all pitchers, and he was a monster at home during the regular season. Well, we hit the jackpot. Kelly will be starting Game 1 for the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium against arguably the second-best lineup in baseball — the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kelly’s road woes have altered him all season long. His ERA jumps to a whopping 4.07 while allowing a .333 on-base percentage. His last start in Dodger Stadium came not too long ago. In late August, Kelly surrendered seven runs and lasted just five innings.
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It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks advancing to the NLCS without taking one of these first two games on the road. But these Dodgers hitters are too familiar for Kelly and now are in their home stadium where they see the ball well. Kelly may see the leash get pulled early if he ends up seeing the top of the order for a third time.
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have a combined 59 career at-bats against Kelly with 10 extra-base hits and nine walks. With the nerves of starting his first career playoff game and coming in a daunting environment, don’t be surprised to see Kelly and his 9.4% BB rate on full display.
Using OddsShopper’s tools, we can see that the market is all over this place with Kelly’s player props. FanDuel has his total outs prop set at 15.5 at almost even odds. BetMGM has the best number at playable odds, which is where I recommend playing this MLB player prop bet.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Merrill Kelly Under 16.5 Pitching Outs -115 at BetMGM
Phillies-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 6:07 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Justin’s Target: Kyle Schwarber at FanDuel
These two offensive powerhouses meet up again in October for a second consecutive season. Spencer Strider would like to forget last season’s series. Strider started his first-ever playoff game against the Phillies on the road, where he was lit up. He allowed five earned runs, including a memorable home run to Rhys Hoskins that featured a bat spike. Strider is back for redemption, and I’m back to fading him.
Kyle Schwarber had a September to remember against RHPs. He hit the second-most home runs against righties while hitting .290. That’s pretty impressive for a guy who hits under .200 on the season. The opportunity to get five at-bats on the road is enticing as well. In his last 10 games on the road, Schwarber hit four home runs, including eight hits. He’s feeling great at the plate at the right time.
Strider and Schwarber have a history that bodes well for Schwarber. The two have matched up 17 times, with Schwarber hitting one home run and three additional singles. The veteran presence of Schwarber, mixed with his familiarity with Strider, makes this our top Phillies-Braves home run pick.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Kyle Schwarber +400 at FanDuel
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