Well, they say a series doesn’t truly start until a road team wins a game. That has yet to be the case with the home team winning each of the first four games. Can the Phillies hold onto a lead and take a series lead back to Philadelphia? Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Phillies-Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Oct. 18.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Saturday, Oct. 21
Phillies-Diamondbacks Prop Bets
When: 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Pheonix
I could go on and on about Bryce Harper being walked this postseason. We’ve easily cashed this player prop in Game 3 and Game 2. We won’t stop backing it until the books adjust – which only one has. DraftKings has this prop set at -140 while BetMGM is laying -115, a playable price. Let’s dive into Game 4, where Harper will be matched up against Zac Gallen again.
Game 1 featured this exact pitching matchup. Zac Gallen on the mound for Arizona, with ace Zack Wheeler taking the ball for Philadelphia. Gallen was humbled fast in his homecoming. Kyle Schwarber took him deep on the first pitch he threw. Bryce Harper followed that up two batters later with a deep shot on the first pitch he saw. In the third inning, Harper came up again with Trea Turner on second base and first base open. I’m screaming at the television for Gallen to walk him. Gallen then gives Harper a pitch that he roped into right field and scored Turner. Did Gallen learn his lesson? Yes. He walked Harper on five pitches the next at-bat.
Gallen’s low walk rate is concerning, but the Diamondbacks approach to Harper gives me confidence he’ll walk tonight. Alec Bohm continues to hit behind Harper, which is a questionable move in itself. Pitchers, primarily right-handers, would much rather pitch to Bohm who is hitting .222 this postseason. Even if the Phillies move Nick Castellanos or J.T. Realmuto up in the lineup, Harper still won’t see drivable pitches. After walking last night, Harper has made it eight out of 10 games this postseason, being issued a free pass. Continue to back this player prop at odds below -130.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (-115 at BetMGM)
Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Pick
Trea Turner has lived up to that massive $300 million contract this postseason. In 37 at-bats, Turner is hitting .459 with three home runs and 31 total bases. Books have moved his hits + runs + rbi player prop to 2.5, a tough line to cover. So, we will pivot to his home run prop that is +440, a +EV bet according to OddsShopper’s tools.
The last thing Zac Gallen wants to do tonight is put Turner on with Harper on deck. He should be able to see pitches to drive to left field like he did in Game 2 against Merill Kelly in the first inning. All it took for the Phillies against Gallen in Game 1 was for him to miss his spot on his fastball three times that the Phillies took deep.
Turner has showcased his pop against RHP this season with 17 home runs. Gallen is a phenomenal pitcher at home compared to on the road, but this is an excellent +EV spot to back Turner, who has recorded a hit in all 10 games this postseason.
Best Diamondbacks-Phillies Home Run Bet: Trea Turner +440 at FanDuel
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