This will be the first time the division rival Rangers and Astros meet in the postseason. First pitch will be thrown at 8:15 p.m. ET by one of the greats, Justin Verlander. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run picks and player prop bets for Rangers-Astros on Sunday, October 15.
Top MLB Home Run Pick & Player Prop Bet for Sunday, Oct. 15
Rangers-Astros Player Prop Bet
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Justin’s Targets: Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander is made for this moment. He has a chance to jumpstart the Astros to a 1-0 series lead in the ALCS and defend their World Series crown. OddsShopper’s tools identified a +EV spot that checks all the boxes: Verlander under 2.5 earned runs.
Verlander dominated this Texas Rangers lineup in September, throwing seven innings of one-run baseball and getting the win. Tonight he may not be in line for a win, with the potential of a short leash, but Verlander should put the Astros in a great position to win this game at home. Speaking of playing in front of your home fans, Verlander is coming off a surreal outing last series. He shut out the Minnesota Twins in six innings on his way to another win. If you want to get spicy, DraftKings offers Verlander to record a win at +245. You’ll need at least five innings from Verlander and the Astros to have and hold a lead when Verlander exits the game.
Let’s dive into Verlander’s history versus some of these Rangers batters. Leadoff hitter Marcus Semien has had Verlander’s number, with 14 hits in 43 at-bats, but Corey Seager not so much. He’s hitting below.270, while Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver can’t seem to figure out Verlander. That also applies to phenom catcher Jonah Heim, who is hitless in six career at-bats.
We’re trusting Verlander in the biggest spot of the season. He’s shown up in this situation plenty of times in his Hall of Fame career, and I expect nothing short of a masterclass performance. He’s stayed under this player prop in three out of his last four postseason starts and 18 of 28 starts this season.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Justin Verlander Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Rangers-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Justin’s Targets: Alex Bregman
Caesars Sportsbook continues to dominate the home run market. They offer the best promotions for the market and now have the best odds for Houston’s Alex Bregman to hit a home run at +600. In comparison, DraftKings and BetMGM are offering this same prop at +500 and +475.
Bregman has been a staple in the Astros dynasty for years. That has continued into this postseason. He hit a home run in Game 2 of the series against the Twins and now will have a chance to tee off on LHP Jordan Montgomery, whom he has seen plenty of times over the years, dating back to Montgomery’s time on the Yankees. In 14 at-bats, Bregman has yet to hit an extra-base hit but has three singles off Montgomery and a low 14% strikeout rate. On that note, Bregman is a rare strikeout candidate. He ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage and tends to have competitive at-bats that drive opposing pitchers crazy.
Even though Bregman has reverse splits, I don’t expect to see Montgomery much in this game. In a must-win game, the leash will be short for Montgomery, and then he will hand it off to a bullpen that struggled during the regular season.
Best Rangers-Astros Home Run Bet: Alex Bregman (+600 Caesars Sportsbook)
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