The work week always starts with a lighter slate, but there’s plenty of value lurking on Monday night. In fact, with 13 games — including a matinee in the Bronx — there are a couple of exploitable matchups to attack, be it on the mound or the plate. We might catch a team struggling in their own way as they open a second straight road series, or simply turn to OddsShopper’s Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool for guidance. Let’s build a 3x winner with some Underdog pick’em predictions!
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Alec Bohm H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
All-Star Alec Bohm won’t quite look the part tonight, at least according to the Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool. Edge is edge, right? We take anything we can in grinding out a full MLB season. In this case, staying lower than 1.5 total bases for Bohm provides a 1.2% edge against the market. He faces a righty-righty matchup against Bailey Ober, but that’s just one of the issues.
Ober and the Twins catch the Phillies off a losing series in Pittsburgh. The bats salvaged the series on Sunday, but overall the team hasn’t looked like it did pre-break. Plus, Ober has his 26.5% strikeout to 6% walk rate. It’s not just dealing strikeouts and limiting mistakes; even the contact has been limited with a .229 xBA. Bohm is a deserving All-Star and has the stats to match; it’s more a matter of where the Phillies are on the schedule and this particular matchup on the mound.
OddsShopper gives us that edge because the -122 implied odds on Underdog beat the -125 true odds. Even that small edge is enough to profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Alec Bohm Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
Austin Gomber H/L Than 6.5 Hits Allowed
Coors Field brings out the best in even the worst lineups; look at what it does for the home team Rockies. It’s an easy jump to think the Boston Red Sox will come to town and start raking, but this is a much more difficult matchup than meets the eye.
Austin Gomber’s best attribute going against the Sox is his left hand. The BoSox struggle this year against southpaws, and Gomber once again should fit that bill. Even if it’s short lived, Gomber is more likely to get chased with a few long balls rather than a methodical 10-hit approach.
With a 6% walk rate, there’s not much concern Gomber will load the bases with walks. He’s just not a great pitcher, and there’s no true way around it. The benefit we have is a larger number at 6.5 hits and a team that can’t seem to figure out lefties.
The ball will certainly fly tonight, and that alone may chase Gomber from the game. It won’t be from giving up a bunch of hits, as he can survive multiple innings.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Austin Gomber Lower Than 6.5 Hits Allowed
