One more day remains in the MLB streets before the return of the NBA Finals — who are we kidding, we’ll be back talking baseball on Friday. The beauty of both playing on Underdog and using our MLB pick’em tool is we know there will always be value. Not to mention, we don’t even need to do much of the work! We have a spread-out slate today on the diamond, so let’s dive in and build a 3x winner with Underdog MLB pick’em predictions.
It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: Choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning entry. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning entries
Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Luis Arraez H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
T
he Padres are trying to do anything to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Angels. Dylan Cease gets the nod to stop the bleeding, but teammate Luis Arraez faces a different test, staying somewhat hot at the plate. He will face Jose Soriano and has the better matchup on paper. Arraez has been stellar when making contact, a .324 xBA combined with a ridiculously low 5.9% strikeout rate. He’s putting the ball in play even on an 0-for-5 night.
By the way, we’ve seen our share of those 0-for nights; he’s also able to stay alive mustering up a hit here and there. We like him lower than 1.5 total bases for a few reasons, including the edge we get from the MLB pick’em tool. First, Arraez has plenty of games since being traded by Miami where he couldn’t get a hit — 16 of 27 games, to be exact, since coming over to San Diego on May 4. Soriano has a decent 22% strikeout rate but has limited good contact with a .232 xBA. He was never going to strike out Arraez anyway but still has the tools for success.
We get a 4% EV edge against the market thanks to the MLB pick’em tool. The -122 implied odds on Underdog for lower than 1.5 total bases significantly beat -134 true odds. Just having a tool like this available helps us understand and benefit from edge.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Luis Arraez LOWER Than 1.5 Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
The big story tonight in this game between the Pirates and Dodgers is Paul Skenes against the Dodgers. I’m not sure where Bryan Reynolds hitting for two-plus total bases is on the hype list, but it is safe to assume it’s not No. 2. Looking at tonight’s pitching matchup, Reynolds has one guy to worry about in James Paxton, whom the Dodgers are probably more concerned about right now.
Paxton’s numbers may be rough, but Reynolds has been destroying. This is a tough game with plenty of ebbs and flows, as we’ve seen recently with Reynolds. He responded from a three-game hitless streak with five hits over his past three games, two of those were two-hit contests. This should be a heavy advantage for Reynolds against a struggling pitcher on the road.
The deal is sealed for us looking at Reynolds .356 xwOBA combined with a 20% strikeout rate. He’s a tough out tonight for Paxton, especially with brutal numbers like a 14.2 strikeouts to 12.8 walks.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Bryan Reynolds HIGHER Than 1.5 Total Bases
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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