We split on Friday thanks to a Bryce Harper homer. There’s no better way to kick Monday’s behind than owning a 3x winner on Underdog, and with a decent MLB slate, there’s plenty of opportunity. We have a few series of note, including the Cubs in Cleveland taking on the Guardians and the Rangers in Fenway against the Red Sox. Are the Guardians out of their recent slump? They have to be with the pitcher they face. We will also use the OddsShopper MLB pick’em tool to optimize value in the Red Sox-Rangers game. Here are your top two MLB Underdog pick’em predictions for Monday, Aug. 12.
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Shota Imanaga H/L Than 5.5 Hits Allowed
The Guardians dropped three of their last 10 but won two straight. If this were a bottom feeder, we wouldn’t even blink at the two consecutive wins. However, the Guardians are atop the AL Central and fighting for the division. The Cubs are even hotter, looking for their fifth straight win as they try to keep pace in the NL Central. Shota Imanaga is charged with keeping it going for Chicago, but the Guardians are not an easy matchup. Imanaga’s numbers are fine — great in some areas like his xwOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate. The issue isn’t Imanaga, more so the circumstances around this start.
The Guardians don’t strike out much — with only Lane Thomas and Bo Naylor having uncomfortable strikeout rates. Everyone else on the everyday lineup card is a tough strikeout. While some of these guys are struggling to hit, they are making outs by contact, not by whiff. Imanaga also throws a good number of innings. He was lit up by the Cardinals two starts ago and still pitched into the sixth inning. The expectation of a deep start against a good hitting team that doesn’t strike out is exactly why we go higher.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Shota Imanaga Higher Than 5.5 Hits Allowed
Wyatt Langford H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
Things seem to come in bunches for Wyatt Langford. He can put together a stretch of three to four games with solid contact then go dark for a week. As expected, his numbers are pedestrian at best — not killing him but not overcoming better pitching. With a .315 xwOBA and 20.3 strikeout rate, he is certainly beatable at the plate.
The Rangers have seen success with the lineup he’s sandwiched between. That simply might not be enough for Langford today despite Brayan Bello struggling overall on the year. Langford can still single and cash this pick, something that’s absolutely possible with Bello’s .265 xBA.
We get a break here thanks to the MLB pick’em tool recognizing market value with the play. There is a 3% +EV edge because the -122 implied odds beat the -130 true price. This means we are getting a better price on Langford staying lower than 1.5 total bases than what the number should be.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Wyatt Langford Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
