As the Atlanta Braves look to build some momentum before entering the playoffs, the New York Yankees are still looking to find their way into the playoffs in the first place. You can tune into this game via TBS tonight, so let’s dig into today’s Yankees-Braves odds as we make our predictions and pick the best bet, including a player prop! For more MLB picks today, check out our top player props to watch.
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Yankees-Braves Pick, Player Prop Bet & Prediction
Yankees-Braves Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Yankees: +188 | Braves: -220
Yankees +1.5: -102 | Braves -1.5: -118
Over 10.5: -118 | Under 10.5: -104
YRFI: -170 | NRFI: +132
Yankees-Braves Pick & Prediction
This season has not gone as planned for the New York Yankees. At 60-59, they are just one game above .500, and they’re 14 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East lead. The AL Wild Card race isn’t much better — they’re 5.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final berth. So what’s gone wrong for them? Well, an offense that’s overly reliant on Aaron Judge, for one. Judge owns an elite .485 expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, which ranks among the MLB’s best. Only one other member of the Yankees owns an xwOBA above .350, giving the team a .327, which ranks tied for seventh. The Braves own a .364 xwOBA as a team.
But the Braves are such a large favorite for tonight’s game because of pitching, not because of batting. The Yankees will start RHP Luis Severino tonight, who owns a dismal 8.06 ERA and a similarly awful 6.75 xERA. The Braves will start RHP Bryce Elder, whose 3.64 ERA and 4.44 xERA aren’t good but aren’t nearly as bad as Severino’s numbers. However, both starters will get plenty of help from their relievers — New York’s bullpen leads the MLB in ERA at 3.25, while Atlanta’s ranks a close second at 3.48. Still, the Braves have a pretty big leg up due to the disparity between these starting pitchers, and the total reflects the likelihood this game devolves into a high-scoring slugfest.
Let’s take advantage of the bad pitching matchup. Atlanta is averaging 3.7 first five inning runs per game, which leads the MLB. Yet despite their offense’s tendency to excel early, you’ll find their first five run total set to 3.5 — with the over in the plus money at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook! That’s a better price than the +103 (49.3%) you’ll find at Pinnacle, so let’s jump on this number before it gets bid off the board. Severino has been that bad this year — he has coughed up at least four runs in the first five innings in each of his last three starts.
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Best Yankees-Braves MLB Pick: Atlanta F5 Over 3.5 +105 at DraftKings
Yankees-Braves Player Prop
We already talked about why we’re fading RHP Luis Severino, but his struggles also give us an edge on the MLB player prop markets. Severino’s .606 SLG allowed and .531 xSLG allowed, the latter of which is in the second percentile, make him a fantastic pitcher to target on most slates. Today is no exception, especially with him taking on the red-hot Atlanta Braves. Severino has fared worst against LHBs, as he has allowed them to hit .373 with a .701 SLG, coughing up 24 extra-base hits and 10 home runs to them in 134 at-bats.
The Braves are pretty top-heavy when it comes to left-handed power. Matt Olson, who now leads the MLB in home runs with 43, is their best LHB by far. Although Olson only ranks third on the roster in xwOBA at .404, that’s still in the 97th percentile. His dominant .621 SLG is impressive, and even his slightly worse .588 xSLG is in the 98th percentile. Olson also leads the MLB in both average and maximum exit velocity. You can add him to your Dinger Tuesday card for odds of just +250 (28.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which, while not the most profitable number, still is +EV in this spot.
But despite Olson’s absolute dominance and Severino’s struggles, the books are treating today like every other day for Olson. That’s a huge mistake. Olson recorded 277 total bases across 118 games, meaning he averages 2.34 total bases per game. Yet we can buy him in a smash spot at odds of just -115 (53.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook just to record two bases tonight. Oh, and if you haven’t used your 50% profit boost today, you can gas this one up to +130 (43.5%) for up to $25. Let’s make the books pay for underrating Matt Olson on the player prop markets today.
Best MLB Player Prop: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 at DraftKings
