The Chicago White Sox return home after taking the last two games of a three-game set in Cleveland. The Sox are looking toward next year after a disappointing first half, a trade deadline fire sale and the Tim Anderson fiasco, but they will still try to contend with the visiting New York Yankees on Monday night. The Yankees are faltering after losing a series to the Houston Astros and now leaving town for a long road trip where they will fight to remain viable in the AL Wild Card race. Let’s jump into Monday’s Yankees-White Sox odds to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based model.
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Yankees-White Sox MLB Betting Pick & Prediction: Yankee Goes Yard
Yankees-White Sox Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Yankees: -164 | White Sox: +138
Yankees -1.5: +104 | White Sox +1.5: -125
Over 7.5: -118 | Under 7.5: -104
The New York Yankees will open their series against the White Sox with their ace on the mound. Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees as he pushes for the AL Cy Young award. He is currently a -200 favorite in the AL Cy Young race at FanDuel, with similar pricing to be found around the sports betting industry. Cole had strong seasons in 2022 and 2021, but he has not had a season as statistically sound as this one since he was with the Houston Astros in 2019. This year Cole leads the American League in ERA and has a 1.04 WHIP. He also ranks in the top 20 in several advanced metrics like BABIP, strikeouts per nine, walks per nine and strikeout-to-walk ratio. It is no surprise he is the American League Cy Young frontrunner.
Dylan Cease was in a similar position to Cole last season. Although Cease ultimately did not secure the hardware, he was a runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award as one of the league’s best pitchers. Cease has been OK in 2023 as well, but he has failed to repeat his results from a year ago. He has a 4.61 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and has been a league-average pitcher in most statistical categories. Cease’s decline has been a problem for the White Sox, who have failed to live up to expectations. Their talented roster is thought to have underperformed in 2022 but had new hope after letting go of manager Tony La Russa.
Both starting pitchers are getting respect in this Yankees-White Sox matchup, and New York’s bullpen is also one of the strongest in baseball. The run total in the game is just 7.5 runs. The Yankees are moneyline favorites, and they will definitely be pushing for a win as they try to remain in the playoff hunt. Their implied team total given the Yankees-White Sox odds is 4.3 compared to the Sox at 3.4, so they have plenty of chances to get to Cease.
One player with a serious shot of doing so for the Yankees is Jake Bauers. He gets the lefty-righty platoon matchup that should see him lead off the game in Chicago. The White Sox have two lefties in their bullpen, Aaron Bummer and Tanner Banks, who could get in this game and force the Yankees to pinch-hit for Bauers. However, Bummer threw a whopping 43 pitches in relief on Saturday and Banks is somewhat buried on the bullpen depth chart, making it more likely they will be running out all righties tonight. Bauers is +400 to go yard on FanDuel, which has a 5% positive expected value. The true odds of this Yankees-White Sox bet should be +378 given its 21% win rate. It is worth staking about .4% of your bankroll using the full Kelly Criterion.
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Best Yankees-White Sox MLB Pick: Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at FanDuel
