A YRFI bet as the best bet of the Sunday MLB slate? It that even possible? Well, today it is according to our OddsShopper MLB betting model. Reds-Brewers is getting us some killer value for a first inning bet — and for once it’s an over. If you want other picks like NRFIs, YRFIs and MLB best bets, head on over to Nathan’s Discord. Now let’s see that yes run first inning bet today.
YRFI Bets Today: Best Yes Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers | YRFI Bets Today
What’s really working in our favor here is the Brewers throwing career reliever D.L. Hall out there for his fifth start of the season. Hall was a perfectly competent bullpen arm the last two seasons with Baltimore, but Milwaukee gave him the ball for the first inning at the beginning of the season. He went 2-for-4 on NRFIs and recorded a 2.265 WHIP and 6.97 FIP before going to the 60-day injured list.
Today Hall is making his first appearance since April 20 — a game where he allowed four runs and walked five in just 3.2 innings. Now, maybe the knee injury had something to do with that, and getting healthy will shape up the walks. His career per-nine rate of 3.8 doesn’t exactly portend control, though.
And lest we forget, the best base stealer in the world will be hitting second for Cincinnati. If Elly De La Cruz draws an early walk (he is 15th in the National League in that category), he will at a minimum get to second and possibly to third. That’s the glory of playing a Reds YRFI.
Sure, the Reds don’t have big boppers behind De La Cruz, hence them averaging less than half a run per first inning. But this pitcher is an on-base machine, so really they just need to put the ball in play to get De La Cruz or whomever else home.
The Brewers have a tougher matchup with strikeout machine Nick Lodolo, but we’re OK with that because of the great spot for Cincinnati and some super-advantageous odds. DraftKings has the YRFI at +110, whereas OddsShopper’s MLB betting model puts the yes run first inning +103. True odds are how we calculate breakeven points in our bets, so these +110 odds are giving us a strong 3.2% market edge. That will likely move before long, though, so hop on it now and pray we see De La Cruz run wild early on.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Reds-Brewers YRFI (+110 at DraftKings)
Speaking of fading Hall in this Reds-Brewers matchup, the market-based MLB betting model pick loves some strikeout under action today.
There are a couple of +EV spots for this bet in the OddsShopper model right now, as the true odds for Hall under 4.5 strikeouts is +102. The +110 odds at DraftKings are the best out there, which beat the true odds by a few ticks and give us positive expected value (+EV) of 3.9%. Anything longer than +102 means an edge, so ESPN BET and BetMGM are +EV as well.
DraftKings is the best, though with a 49% expected win rate and a solid OS Rating of 4.
This year our strikeout bets are 416-296 when they have an OS Rating of 4 or better two hours before first pitch. As a result, they are offering a HUGE 15.3% return on investment across all books! If you tailed all such bets this year, you would be up nearly $18,000 this year.
OddsShopper’s market-based bets focus on long-term profitability rather than short-term gains or losses. Over time, these bets are more likely to enhance your bankroll.
