The best NRFI bets are the sweat-free type, and we got an absolutely no-sweat cash in Blue Jays-Tigers last night. Arguably our easiest no run first inning bet cash of the season, and it puts us on a 6-2 run with some good momentum heading into a decent Friday NRFI slate. I’ve got my two best NRFI bets today lined up, now let’s get our bags packed for another weekend trip to Cash City, my friends.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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There are specific parks we love to target for NRFI bets, and Citi Field is one of those parks due to its tendency to mitigate offense. Especially when we have a couple of teams that are below league-average in run-creation.
New York has its young righty Christian Scott on the mound tonight, who is 2-1 on NRFIs in his brief MLB tenure.
The Giants are a predominantly right-handed team without Jung Hoo Lee and Michael Conforto, and Scott has been basically lights out against righties in the limited sample we’ve seen.
He’s held them to a .189 average, .262 OBP and a .351 SLG%, while lefties have touched him up for a .393/.414/.429 line.
So outside of LaMonte Wade Jr, Mike Yastrzemski and switch-hitting Patrick Bailey, he shouldn’t have too many lefties to deal with.
The Mets, on the other hand face left-hander Kyle Harrison, and they have struggled against southpaws so far this season.
New York ranks just 20th in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA against lefties.
Harrison is 8-2 on NRFIs in his 10 starts so far in 2024, and that includes some pretty tough assignments like the Dodgers, the Padres, at Boston and AT Coors.
He’s found some new success this season with his slurve, which has been his best pitch in terms of whiff rate (30.6). It’s been the pitch he’s used most to put away right-handed batters, and he’ll need it tonight when he sees Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and possibly JD Martinez in the bottom of the first inning.
We know Alonso and Martinez have plenty of swing-and-miss in their game, so there’s always the chance of outs without balls being put in play, which would be ideal.
Let’s trust the 7.5 run total projection here, and the arms on the mound to get the job done to cash this NRFI bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Giants-Mets NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
I’m shaking my head with each keystroke, just thinking how unbelievable it is that the numbers I’m seeing on Mackenzie Gore’s Baseball Savant page are real.
But yes, they are real. I checked. Three times. Mainly on the whiff rates and strikeout rates.
However, I can confirm, those are correct. And they are probably going to play well in this matchup against the Mariners tonight.
Gore is sitting right at 10.5 strikeouts-per-nine-innings, and Seattle is striking out over 25% of the time against left-handers this season, which is a great strength-on-weakness matchup.
Not only that, but Gore is 9-0 on NRFIs this season, so we’re straight cooking with gas in the top of the first inning.
In the bottom half of the first, we’re getting Mariners righty George Kirby, who is 7-3 on his NRFI chances this season. He’s coming off a tough outing his last time out, but that was against the Orioles, which I’m willing to give him a pass for.
This Nationals team is far less potent and ranks as the worst team in baseball in first inning runs. The Nats have been NRFI’d in 85% of their games this season.
Kirby isn’t going strike out 10 guys a game, but he isn’t going to walk the yard either, which is important.
Again, we only have a 7.5 total here with two quality arms and two bottom-of-the-barrel first-inning offenses. It’s a system play that leads us to the NRFI bet today, and we trust the process.
Let’s go 2-fo-2 tonight and extend this winning streak to an 8-2 run.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mariners-Nationals NRFI (-129 at BetRivers)
