It was an absolutely sweat-free NRFI bet win for us last night on our way to Cash City — six quick and easy outs just like we drew it up. The NRFI bets for today, Thursday, May 30, don’t look all that appetizing if we’re being totally honest. But I did find one bet with +100 odds that we should rock with given the value. It might only be a half-unit play since we’re messing with plus-odds, so you could dial it back a tad and risk a half to win a full unit. Let’s get into the best YRFI/NRFI bets for today.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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The Cubs and Brewers were one of the most popular NRFI bets on the entire slate yesterday, with Shota Imanaga being undefeated on NRFIs taking the mound. And of course, he promptly gave up a double and then an absolute BOMB to Christian Yelich that sullied the NRFI in no time. So could the YRFI play spoiler to the NRFI two days in a row up in Milwaukee?
Survey says … YES!
Colin Rea takes the mound for the Brewers, and this guy is the literal definition of “scam” in the latest edition of Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary.
Despite his ERA still not reaching 4.00, his expected ERA is 5.66, which is in the bottom 8% of all MLB pitchers this season.
Not only that, but let’s take a look at his percentile rankings in most meaningful pitching categories:
- Expected Batting Average: 3rd Percentile (.302 xAVG)
- Chase Percentage: 7th Percentile (22.5%)
- Whiff Percentage: 10th Percentile (18.9%)
- Strikeout Percentage: 12th Percentile (15.5%)
In case you needed a reminder, the lower the percentile ranking, the worse you are. For reference, his Baseball Savant Statcast data chart looks more blue than an Eiffel 65 concert in 1997.
As you can see, Rea isn’t fooling anyone with his mediocre pitch mix that is barely averaging low-90s in terms of fastball velo.
The Cubs have a handful of guys, including their studs like Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Cristopher Morel, who hit the sinker-cutter-fastball mix that Rea throws very well. And they’ll likely be three of the four hitters in the top of the lineup today.
The Cubs could really jump on Rea early today, and I wouldn’t be surprised one iota if they did.
However, we have a few ways to get there on the other side if the Northsiders don’t find a way to plate a run in the top half.
Milwaukee has been one of the best offensive teams against right-handed pitching this season, ranking only behind the Yankees and Dodgers in wRC+ and OPS.
Jameson Taillon has rebounded nicely this season and is actually 5-2 on NRFIs coming into this game. The success is mostly due to an increase in ground ball rate, but all of his other numbers seem to be consistent with other years, which have led to some pretty shaky statistics in the past.
However, we can see that he’s still struggling to miss bats, and his 15.2% strikeout rate is actually lower than his counterpart Rea’s today, which is just … I mean … that’s bad.
The Brewers have some dudes who can really hit the ball HARD, and if you can’t make them miss, you could be in for some trouble.
So like I said, we’re getting some good plus-money value here with a couple of pitchers who don’t have put-away stuff in a park that could allow us to get some offense rolling. We can target this one and root for some fun with the YRFI bet today.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Brewers YRFI (+100 at Caesars)
