With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Alexander Volkanovski-Ilia Topuria pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Alexander Volkanovski-Ilia Topuria Pick, Odds and Preview
Alexander Volkanovski-Ilia Topuria Odds
UFC 298 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Volkanovski: -120 | Topuria : +100
Volkanovski -5.5: +120 | Topuria +5.5: -165
Over 3.5: -135 | Under 3.5: +105
Alexander Volkanovski-Ilia Topuria Pick & Preview
In Ilia Topuria’s mind, he is already the champion going into the main event of UFC 298. To make that vision a reality, however, he’ll have to go through one of the greatest fighters in Featherweight history, Alexander Volkanovski.
Topuria has a dangerous blend of knockout power and high-level grappling, which enables him to dominate on the judges’ cards, as he did against Josh Emmett, or put his opponents to sleep early. Despite his obvious talent, the odds he beats Volk are too generous.
There are few fighters on the current UFC roster that have resumes even remotely close to Volk’s. Though he lost two of his last three, one in devastating fashion, each came at Lightweight to Islam Makhachev, the current number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. While Topuria beat Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell in his last two fights, neither comes close to Volk’s caliber.
Volk is about as well-rounded as they come, and his ability to land a high percentage of significant strikes at the output he throws for the entirety of a five-round fight speaks both to his skill and stamina. Volk lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute at a 57% rate. He landed over 60% of his significant strikes in five of his last six fights, each of which was a title fight. In all eight of his title fights, the only fighter that defended over 40% of Volk’s significant strikes was Max Holloway, who generally defends significant strikes at a 59% rate.
This is important, because Topuria was rocked a few times in his fight against Jai Herbert and even took a few spinning kicks to the face from Ryan Hall, who is known far more for his jiu jitsu than his striking. Against fighters like Hall and Herbert, Topuria had openings to bring himself back into the fight and eventually win with brutal knockouts, but those same openings likely won’t be there against Volk.
Topuria certainly improved since those fights, but Volk’s defense is on another level. Finding a Hail Mary knockout won’t be so easy, as Volk only absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute, nearly half of the punishment he doles out. Topuria may have the slight edge when it comes to grappling, as he lands around 2.19 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight-time. This is especially helpful when he gets rocked on the feet, as he can land desperation takedowns and take time to recover.
However, according to ESPN’s statistics, Topuria didn’t advance position while on the ground in any of his fights after his debut. These stats may not be the most exact, as they depend on qualitative assessments to determine what counts as an advance, but they still show that Topuria isn’t the most aggressive when he gets top position on the ground. This is supplemented by the amount of ground strikes he lands, which was less than twenty in all but one of his UFC fights.
Ultimately, there is always the chance Topuria lands a heavy shot and puts Volk out. It’s also possible Volk isn’t at his peak anymore after the two losses to Makhachev. Nonetheless, I’ll take my chances with either of those possibilities with the line at -120.
Best UFC 298 Picks- Volkanovski-Topuria Bet & Pick: Volkanovski ML, -120 at DraftKings.
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