With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Pick, Odds and Preview
Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Pantoja: -205 | Royval: +150
Pantoja -5.5: -165 | Royval +5.5: +120
Over 2.5: +120 | Under 2.5: -150
Alexandre Pantoja-Brandon Royval Pick & Preview
The penultimate fight of the night, a rematch between Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) and Brandon Royval (15-6), promises to set a pace only flyweights can.
However, each fighter will have to adjust their strategy to ensure they can last the full five rounds, which leaves an edge on the over 2.5 rounds in the plus money.
Both Pantoja and Royval possess severe stopping power. They can both finish opponents on the ground or on the feet. Out of his seven UFC fights, Royval has only made it to the third round once, which yielded a decision victory.
Pantoja has finished six of his 13 UFC fights with the other seven going to decision. All told, 40% of their combined fights have gone to decision.
One important difference for which each fighter must adjust is the length of the fight. This bout is just Pantoja’s second five-round UFC fight. It’s also Royval’s first.
In Pantoja’s first five-rounder, the concern his pace would be too high at the start seemed to come true, as he looked winded in the second round.
Heeding his corner’s advice, he put less power into each shot, and with the help of his grappling, he made it the full five rounds and pulled out the victory.
Looking for more UFC 296 picks? OddsShopper’s tools have identified this pick from the prelims as a slight +EV wager. For more picks — including several more profitable ones on other sports — subscribe today! We also have a parlay builder, premium Discord and an expert picks page.
Pantoja should remember the trouble he got himself into the first time and adjust, especially since he looked vulnerable on the feet against Royval in their last fight.
The main question is whether Royval will hunt for an early finish and risk his late-round viability. While it’s a small sample, Royval fought two five-round bouts in the Legacy Fighting Alliance. His most recent of the two ended in a first-round submission, with the earlier ending in a decision loss. Combined, the fighters’ three five-round fights have gone to decision twice, well over the 2.5 rounds necessary for us to cash the over.
In all, Royval’s submission-heavy results will be harder to come by in this fight, and if his first loss to Pantoja has taught him anything, Royval should come out with a slower-paced strategy.
Best UFC Pantoja-Royval Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings
