With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Aliaskhab Khizriev-Makhmud Muradov pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Aliaskhab Khizriev-Makhmud Muradov Pick, Odds and Preview
Aliaskhab Khizriev-Makhmud Muradov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Khizriev: -150 | Muradov: +120
Khizriev -3.5: -110 | Muradov +3.5: -120
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Aliaskhab Khizriev-Makhmud Muradov Pick & Preview
The second fight of the main card sees a clash between Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0) and Makhmud Muradov (26-8). With little data to go off in the UFC, this is a tough one to forecast, but riding with Muradov as the underdog seems to be the sharpest bet.
Muradov had an interesting turn in his last bout. In his first five fights in the UFC, Muradov didn’t attempt more than two takedowns.
He made a major change to his game plan coming off of two losses and attempted sixteen takedowns, landing thirteen of them. The drastic change in style reflects a willingness and ability on Muradov’s behalf to attack his opponents’ weaknesses rather than brazenly forcing his own perceived strengths.
Khizriev hasn’t been tested in the same way. Counterintuitively, this is a bit of a drawback as Khizriev will take a major step up, both in terms of his opponent and the stage on which he’ll fight.
His only other fight on a UFC card was on the prelims against Denis Tiuliulin, who went 1-4 in his UFC bouts and was finished in all of them.
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Muradov will prove to be a much more difficult test for Khizriev. On the feet, he possesses a great deal of power and lands a solid 4.21 significant strikes per minute. Even more impressive is his ability to defend himself on the feet, only absorbing 2.56 significant strikes per minute at a 61% defense rate.
Muradov’s defenses will be difficult for Khizriev to crack, as his base is grounded more in grappling than in striking. If Khizriev cannot take down Muradov — who has a solid takedown defense rate of 77% — the fight will be a difficult one on the feet. While Muradov fell victim to a submission once before in his career, I don’t put too much stock in that outcome relative to this one, as it came against a submission specialist with nine submissions in his ten UFC victories.
There isn’t such an apparent edge in this one, but given Muradov’s advantage on the feet and experience against stronger fighters compared to Khizriev’s, I like him as a +120 underdog.
Aliaskhab Khizriev-Makhmud Muradov Pick: Muradov ML +120 at DraftKings
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