With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern Pick, Odds and Preview
Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern Odds
UFC 298 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight
Lemos: -140 | Dern: +110
Lemos -3.5: +105 | Dern +3.5: -140
Over 2.5: +110 | Under 2.5: -140
Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern Pick & Preview
The prelims end with a top-ten Women’s Strawweight matchup between Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) and Mackenzie Dern (13-4).
While underdogs are less risky to play in the UFC given the variability of the sport, Lemos should win this one comfortably if she can avoid the submission. For those looking for a safer play, riding with Lemos moneyline is a solid bet, and for those looking for slightly longer odds, playing Lemos -3.5 has an edge in a fight that isn’t expected to reach the cards.
It’s rare that a Women’s Strawweight bout has longer odds to go to decision than to end before the bell, given the perceived lack of knockout power. Nonetheless, Lemos and Dern earned the line, winning nine of their combined twenty-two fights without needing the judges’ scorecards.
Dern’s ground game is especially dangerous, as she won four of her twelve fight by submission. However, Lemos is respectable on the ground, which should allow her to escape dangerous submission attempts if she finds herself in such a position.
Where Lemos separates herself from Dern is on the feet. Both Dern and Lemos land about the same amount of significant strikes per minute, but Lemos does it on far greater efficiency, landing 55% of the time compared to Dern’s 40%. Beyond the gap in efficiency, Lemos clearly has more stopping power in her strikes, as she won three of her fights by knockout, a feat which Dern still hasn’t accomplished.
Lemos’ ability to win by knockout is especially impressive given the lack of strikes she throws. For example, her third-round knockout against Marina Rodriguez came after landing only twenty-nine strikes, ten of which came in the last round. Dern will have to respect Lemos’ power at every point in the fight or risk suffering the same fate.
Dern is certainly dangerous, and Lemos would be smart to avoid going to the ground at all costs. It shouldn’t be too difficult to avoid the takedown as Dern only converts her takedown attempts 14% of the time. There is little risk that Lemos takes it to the ground herself, as she averages less than one takedown per fifteen minutes. It wouldn’t be wise to implement a more wrestling-oriented approach in this fight, and it’s likely that Lemos’ team recognizes that.
Of Lemos’ seven victories, only one failed to cover the -3.5 line, and even accounting for her losses, her conversion rate on the -3.5 sits at a respectable 60%. Even if the fight goes to the cards, Dern doesn’t have a great record in decisions. With three losses in seven decisions, two of which were dominant victories for her opponents, there is a real risk she can’t perform when her grappling is shut down.
Ultimately, the -3.5 for Lemos is a strong play even if the fight reaches the cards. If it ends before the final bell, I like Lemos to win by knockout.
Best Amanda Lemos-Mackenzie Dern Pick: Lemos -3.5, +105 at DraftKings.
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