With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Pick, Odds and Preview
Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Arlovski: +465 | Cortes-Acosta: -850
Arlovski +3.5: +255 | Cortes-Acosta -3.5: -370
Over 1.5: -135 | Under 1.5: +105
Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Pick & Preview
Former heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski (34-22) will fight for the forty-first time in his legendary career on Saturday. He’ll take on newcomer Waldo Cortes-Acosta in the first fight of the main card after Kape-Nicolau was canceled.
While bookmakers heavily favor the younger fighter, overlooking Arlovski’s decades of experience for a relatively unproven fighter may prove to be a costly mistake.
It’s always difficult to determine when to stop backing an aging fighter, especially one who was as much a pioneer of the sport as one can get in the heavyweight division. Perhaps that time has come for Andrei Arlovski, as he enters this bout on a two-fight skid.
Even before the losses, Arlovski’s previous two wins have come via split decision, meaning he hasn’t won in a particularly convincing fashion as of late. This becomes even more concerning when compared to Cortes-Acosta’s hot start to his UFC career.
However, Arlovski’s career has been defined by streakiness, and a matchup with an inexperienced fighter who is heavily favored could be just the thing he needs to jumpstart another run
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While no win in the UFC can be considered easy, it is clear that Arlovski is a big step up in competition from the fighters Cortes-Acosta has beaten. None of Cortes-Acosta’s three wins came against a fighter with a winning record — the only time he took on a fighter with a record above .500, he lost in a lopsided decision. It is difficult to imagine Cortes-Acosta steamrolling a fighter of Arlovski’s pedigree when he hasn’t proven himself in that way to this point.
Cortes-Acosta should throw a high volume of strikes, as he lands 6.97 significant strikes per minute. However, Arlovski boasts solid striking defense with a 57% strike defense rate. His ability to fight at such a high level and to defend himself well will be paramount in warding off his opponent’s pressure.
Because his career has featured so many ups and downs, it’s difficult to predict which Andrei Arlovski we’ll see on Saturday. Nonetheless, it still appears that he has some fight left in him, as he is 6-3 in his last nine fights dating back to 2020. Oddsmakers give him less than a 20% chance to win, which is a risk well worth taking given the vast experience gap between the fighters.
Best UFC Andrei Arlovski-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Bet & Pick: Adrei Arlovski ML +465 at DraftKings
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