Pulling from the most recent UFC Fight Night odds, we’re going to provide our Anthony Smith-Khalil Rountree pick. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Anthony Smith-Khalil Rountree Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith: +155 | Khalil Rountree Jr: -210
Anthony Smith +3.5: +120 | Khalil Rountree Jr -3.5: -165
Over 2.5: +100 | Under 2.5: -130
Anthony Smith-Khalil Rountree Pick & Preview
Anthony Smith (37-18) and Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5) are no strangers to early highlight-reel finishes, as each fighter possesses immense power. However, the books are counting too heavily on an early finish. With the 1.5 Rounds Over sitting at -105, there is an edge for anyone looking to bet against a quick finish.
In their combined careers, Smith and Rountree have accounted for fourteen finishes in the first 7:30 of their combined 33 fights (34 if you take into account Rountree’s one no-contest). While these finishes show how dangerous each fighter can be from the start, they only account for 42% of the fighter’s combined outcomes, with the remaining 58% of their bouts extending past the first half of the second round.
Further, each fighter relies on one-punch power for much of their success, as neither has a particularly high output. Rountree lands the greater of the two fighters at 3.73 significant strikes per minute, while Smith lands at 3.16 strikes per minute. All told, Rountree can be expected to land around 28 significant strikes in the first 1.5 rounds while Smith can be expected to land around 24.
However, the numbers don’t tell the full story — Anthony Smith has been gun-shy in his recent bouts against strong opponents since his loss to Glover Teixeira. In his three losses since, Smith has attempted only one 149 significant strikes in a tick over 38 minutes of fight time, coming out to a rate of around four per minute. Although his recent win against Ryan Spann saw Smith increase his output, he notably sought to implement his grappling early, attempting three takedowns in the first round despite normally averaging just two in a three-round fight. These strategic decisions hint that his early-round aggression may be tempered in favor of a decision-oriented approach.
Both of these fighters possess the ability to stop the fight at any moment, but with that, the books have overestimated their raw power. The implied odds of the fight lasting longer than 1.5 rounds sit at 50%, meaningfully below that of their career outcomes.
Best UFC Anthony Smith-Khalil Rountree Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds +100 at DraftKings
