The UFC is back! It’s no pay-per-view this weekend, but there’s some exciting action scheduled from the APEX anyway. Let’s get into our Ariane Lipski-Karine Silva pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Ariane Lipski-Karine Silva Pick, Odds and Preview
Lipski–Silva Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Lane: +240 | Diniz: -350
Lane +3.5: +210 | Diniz -3.5: -295
Over 1.5: +200 | Under 1.5: -270
Lipski–Silva Pick & Preview
Both Ariane Lipski (17-8) and Karine Silva (17-4) come into this fight on nice winning streaks. I usually like to ride with the underdog, but I think Silva’s grappling is far too dangerous to side with Lipski here.
Lipski’s striking numbers are something of a roller coaster. She either gets dominated on the feet or outstrikes her opponents comfortably. By way of example, her striking numbers compared to her opponents’ in her recent fights are: 64-31, 66-85, 101-49, 4-20, 87-36, 11-29, and 15-39. In her eleven UFC fights, the delta between strikes has only been less than 10 once, which was a first-round submission less than two minutes into the fight.
This variance has the interesting result of making it appear as though she lands the same amount of significant strikes per minute (4.27) as she absorbs (4.24), which is almost never the case. The wide disparity in striking makes her hard to evaluate.
Nonetheless, I expect Silva to avoid this by taking her down and making her life miserable on the ground. All four of Silva’s fights ended by submission. Yet what sets her apart from other submission specialists is her pressure in attaining the takedown.
Many submission specialists from a BJJ background pull guard to get to the ground, but Silva forces her opponents there. With a 60% success rate, Silva lands 2.45 takedowns per 15.
Lipski’s takedown defense is certainly solid, stuffing her opponents’ attempts 78% of the time. Yet she only faced two fighters who averaged better than one takedown per 15 and averaged 40% or better on takedowns. In those fights, she was 1-1 and allowed two takedowns in the victorious effort.
In short, Lipski hasn’t faced a grappler as pressure-heavy and technical as Silva. I see this one going to the ground and staying there until either the bell or until Lipski is submitted.
Best UFC Lipski-Silva Bet & Pick: Silva ML -165 at DraftKings
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