The UFC returns to the APEX tonight for UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez. With a busy card on tap, let’s get into our Austen Lane-Jhonata Diniz pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Austen Lane-Jhonata Diniz Pick, Odds and Preview
Lane–Diniz Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Lane: +240 | Diniz: -350
Lane +3.5: +210 | Diniz -3.5: -295
Over 1.5: +200 | Under 1.5: -270
Lane–Diniz Pick & Preview
The next fight on the card comes between Heavyweights Austen Lane (12-4) and Jhonata Diniz (6-0). Diniz has done well in his transition from his professional kickboxing career. With such a lopsided line, both for the total and the fight line — along with a lack of data on both fighters, I don’t perceive a substantial enough edge to ride with any here.
Diniz put together an impressive kickboxing record by going 22-7 in his professional career. However, when he got to Glory, which is considered one of the most elite kickboxing promotions, he only managed to go 2-2 before returning to lower-level promotions. To get to Glory and to win multiple fights is certainly impressive, but the worry here is that he can’t contend on an elite level in the way some may anticipate.
This is a particular concern as he enters his official UFC debut as a -360 favorite. He impressed on the Contender Series, landing an impressive knockout. Nonetheless, he was too brazen in his approach for my liking. He landed 25 significant strikes compared to his opponent, who landed 24. Worse yet, his opponent landed 63% of his strikes versus Diniz’s 42%.
It’s one thing to get a quick knockout in the Contender Series and a completely different thing to translate that into the UFC. The problem is, I don’t know if Lane is the person to take advantage of the line being so lopsided.
To his credit, he showed solid ground skills in the Contender Series, reversing the position before ending the fight via TKO. I’m disregarding his first crack at the Contender Series against Greg Hardy, as that was nearly six years ago. However, in his UFC debut against Justin Tafa, he lasted less than two minutes before getting knocked out. Perhaps he learned some valuable lessons from that debut that will help him for this one, but it’s too hard to tell if that’s the case.
Overall, in their combined five fights in the Octagon, Lane and Diniz have logged only 10 minutes. There’s simply not enough time or tape to determine how this one will shake out. My propensity to bet the underdog as well as to take the more experienced fighter has my gut telling me Lane will pull this one out, so for bettors that feel the need to bet on this one, I would suggest doing so — but the better play would be to sit this one out.
Best UFC Lane-Diniz Bet & Pick: Lane ML +240 at DraftKings
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