With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Azat Maksum-Charles Johnson pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Azat Maksum-Charles Johnson Pick, Odds and Preview
Azat Maksum-Charles Johnson Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Maksum: -250 | Johnson: +180
Maksum -3.5: -110 | Johnson +3.5: -120
Over 2.5: -280 | Under 2.5: +210
Azat Maksum-Charles Johnson Pick & Preview
In the penultimate fight on the prelim card, Azat Maksum (17-0) makes his second UFC appearance against Charles Johnson (13-6).
It’s hard to draw too many conclusions about Maksum’s first performance, but it was a lackluster split decision in which he was unable to procure takedowns consistently.
Johnson’s lackluster takedown defense will play into Maksum’s game plan, and without an effective ability to counter, Johnson could find himself on his back for long portions of the fight. His last two fights arrived at similar results in very different ways. In each bout, his opponents procured over nine minutes of control time out of the 15 minutes of fight time.
In his last fight, Johnson was able to stuff a whopping nineteen of his opponent’s twenty-two takedown attempts, which is counter to his prior performance against Cody Durden in which he was taken down 11 times in 17 attempts.
This plays well for Maksum, who attempted 11 takedowns in his first UFC fight. Regardless of how well Johnson can stop takedown attempts, Maksum will have plenty of opportunities to control Johnson.
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There is little reason to believe Johnson will be able to pull off an underdog win via knockout. In his six UFC fights, he has just one knockout win, which came against Jimmy Flick, a grappler who has yet to land more than fifteen significant strikes in the UFC. Meanwhile, Maksum defended himself well in his last fight, in which his opponent, Tyson Nam, came out with a high-output strategy to pressure him on the feet. Nonetheless, Maksum was able to defend 61% of Nam’s significant strikes. The numbers look even better for Maksum when only looking at significant strikes to the head. Nam only landed 27 of his 149 significant head strikes for a rate of around 18%.
This has the making of a long, grinding fight with Maksum in a dominant position for most of the time. As such, riding with Maksum on the point spread at -110 looks to be the best play here. For bettors seeking a riskier play, backing Maksum by submission at +500 may be worth a small bet if he can capture some of his pre-UFC dominance.
Azat Maksum-Charles Johnson Pick: Maksum -3.5 -110 at DraftKings
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