Most bettors will be looking to the main event on Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov. That said, OddsShopper’s market-based betting model has found some leverage spots in the mid- and undercards as well. These are great bouts to bet since they will often be overlooked as great value bets. Let’s get into some of the other UFC bets on the Fight Night slate.
UFC Fight Night Bets & Odds: Finish Potential Across the Undercard
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds
Bruno Ferreira takes on late replacement Nursulton Ruziboev. Ferreira has a perfect 10-0 record after winning his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues in January of this year. Ruziboev makes his UFC debut with a 34-8-2-2 record. At 29 years old, fighting this many times is impressive. He currently boasts an eight-fight winning streak across various regional promotions.
Ferreira has been a lethal finisher to this point in his career. He has black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, with seven finishes by knockout and another three by submission. Ferreira lands 6.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.34. He has not shown any of his ground game in his UFC career, but his fights have not made it out of the first round. In fact, he has only fought into the second round twice in his career. This leaves the door open for cardio questions, but finishes matter more in the eyes of the UFC than anything else.
Ruziboev has a background in boxing and karate, and his fights rarely go to decisions. Ruziboev has 12 knockouts and 20 submission wins to his name. He certainly has an experience edge, but this will be a decent step up in competition for Ruziboev. Like Ferreira, Ruziboev has gas tank concerns, losing almost every fight that gets to the judges.
Ferreira comes into this fight as a -225 favorite over Ruziboev. While Ruziboev is a scary fade with his finishing ability, Ferreira holds a strength of schedule advantage and the superior wrestling. With the ability to win rounds, he should be favored here. For those getting deep, Ferreira by knockout should return some strong odds.
Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Ismael Bonfim: -300 | Benoit Saint Denis: +250
Ismael Bonfim faces Benoit Saint Denis as a -300 favorite. Bonfim has a 19-3 record and defeated Terrance McKinney via flying knee in his UFC debut. On the other side, Saint Denis has a 10-1 professional record and is 2-1 in the UFC. After dropping his debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, he rattled off two straight wins against Niklas Stolze and Gabriel Miranda.
Bonfim is a well-rounded fighter with nine knockouts, four submissions and six decisions. He is a high-output fighter, landing 5.34 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.65. On the ground, he averages 1.35 takedowns per bout, with 28% accuracy. All three of Bonfim’s losses came via submission.
Saint Denis has strong grappling credentials, with a black belt in judo. This is evidenced by his 3.36 takedowns landed per bout. He only has 30% takedown accuracy, but his takedown defense is a strength at 85%. He has a negative striking ratio, but that comes mainly from the dos Santos fight. Saint Denis has eight wins via submission and two via knockout.
Seeing Bonfim take on another strong grappler should be interesting. Bonfim’s biggest strength may actually come in striking exchanges. With that said, Bonfim needs to be wary of Saint Denis’ grappling strength. If he can defend the takedowns, he should be able to find the win.
Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto Odds
Ariane Lipski: +155 | Melissa Gatto: -190
Ariane Lipski enters this bout against Melissa Gatto as a +155 underdog. She has a 15-8 professional record and most recently defeated J.J. Aldrich via unanimous decision. She sits at 4-4 in the UFC. On the other side, Gatto has an 8-1 professional record and a 2-1 record in the UFC. She dropped a unanimous decision to Tracy Cortez in her previous fight last May.
Lipski is a Muay Thai striker, landing 3.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.97 herself. She also averages 0.47 takedowns per bout, with 42% accuracy. She has six wins via knockout and three by submission. She has been knocked out four times, including all three of her most recent losses.
On the other side, Gatto has a well-rounded skill set. She has two knockouts, four submissions and two decisions among her eight wins. Gatto lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.68 takedowns and 33% accuracy. Gatto held her own grappling with Cortez for the most part and should have a grappling advantage over Lipski.
Lipski has given up takedowns on occasion, which should be a path to victory for Gatto. While this fight is volatile, Gatto should earn a victory.
