The UFC returns for Las Vegas for a Fight Night on Saturday, headlined by Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov. OddsShopper’s market-based betting model uses the sharpest sportsbooks to find the best UFC bets. It then recommends where to bet them to grab the highest ROI. Users can access the model for every major sport, plus tools like Parlay Builder! Now let’s use OddsShopper to find the best UFC bets for the Strickland-Magomedov card.
UFC Fight Night Bets & Odds: Sean Strickland–Abus Magomedov
Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener Odds
Guram Kutateladze: -550 | Elves Brener: +400
The prelims kick off with Guram Kutateladze taking on Elves Brener at 155 pounds. Kutateladze stands out as the largest favorite on the entire card at -550. At 12-3 overall, Kutateladze is making his third UFC appearance. He won a split decision against Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut before dropping his next fight via split decision last June to Damir Ismagulov. On the other side, Brenner will make his second UFC appearance after winning a split decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in February. Overall, he is 14-3 in his career.
Starting with Kutateladze, the Georgian Viking has a well-rounded skill set. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.37. Kutateladze has seven knockout wins out of 12 total victories. On the ground, he only averages 0.5 takedowns per bout, with 12% accuracy. However, he has faced some stiff competition in the grappling realm against Gamrot and Ismagulov. He still boasts 77% takedown defense and only allowed three minutes of control time against Gamrot. Gamrot landed five of 16 takedown attempts in that fight, but Kutateladze showed the ability to work back to his feet.
Brener is a submission specialist. Of his 14 wins, 11 came via submission. Wrestling is a question with Brener after going 0-4 on takedown attempts in his first UFC bout. He lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute, but his striking ratio is slightly negative. Brener has also faced much weaker competition than Kutateladze. However, Kutateladze has been submitted once in his career, at least leaving the door open for Brener.
Ultimately, the odds make sense given Kutateladze’s proven pedigree. While -550 is a lot of juice, he should get the job done in the fight’s main card. For those looking to reduce some juice, check out Kutateladze via decision later in the week.
Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov Odds
Alexandr Romanov: -140 | Blagoy Ivanov: +115
After five straight wins to open his UFC career, the Alexandr Romanov hype train has been halted by two straight losses. Now sitting 16-2, Romanov will look to right the ship against Blagoy Ivanov. Ivanov comes into this fight with a 19-5 record, but he is now 1-3 in his last four fights. He is a -140 favorite for this heavyweight bout.
In his most recent bout, Romanov suffered a first-round knockout at the hands of Alexander Volkov in March. Romanov has solid wrestling for a heavyweight and averages 4.96 takedowns per bout, with 52% accuracy. Romanov only has 20% takedown defense, but opponents seldom challenge his wrestling. On the feet, Romanov has shown solid power, with six knockouts. He does not always throw the most, but opponents need to respect the power. Overall, Romanov generally wins with superior wrestling and submission skills.
As for Ivanov, the 36-year-old Bulgarian will have his second fight this year after losing a decision to Marcin Tybura in March. Ivanov has not been the most active fighter in his career, so this comes as a surprise. Ivanov is relatively well rounded. He lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute, but he has a negative striking ratio. He also averages 0.78 takedowns per bout, with 40% accuracy. Ivanov has been out-volumed in each of his last four fights, which is a concern. He has six wins by knockout, six via submission and seven by decision. Ivanov has seen the judges in each of his seven UFC bouts.
Being an aging fighter with low output means it is going to become increasingly hard for Ivanov to win decisions. With Romanov’s well-rounded skill set and strong wrestling, the favorite takes home a victory.
Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina Odds
Ivana Petrovic: -225 | Luana Carolina: +185
In the women’s flyweight division, Ivana Petrovic takes on Luana Carolina as a -225 favorite. Petrovic makes her UFC debut with a 6-0 record. She most recently fought in Ares FC. Carolina has an 8-4 record but far more UFC experience. She is 4-3 in the promotion but lost each of her last two fights.
Petrovic certainly has the weaker strength of schedule. However, she has shown herself to be a lethal finisher, with three knockouts and two submissions on the regional scene. Petrovic only debuted in MMA in 2021, making her green for the game. She appears to have a well-rounded skill set, leading to plenty of hype ahead of her debut.
Carolina is primarily a striker, landing 4.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.43. She has zero takedowns, but she defends them at 78%. With that said, she has been controlled on the mat at times. Molly McCann and Loopy Godinez notched over four and seven minutes of control time against Carolina. Carolina has been finished twice, but she generally wins via decision.
This is a tough fight to peg. Carolina has certainly faced the stiffer competition, and with much to be discovered regarding Petrovic, taking a stab on Carolina at +185 is not the craziest idea.
Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa Odds
Yana Santos: +135 | Karol Rosa: -165
In the women’s Bantamweight division, Karol Rosa takes on Yana Santos as a -165 favorite. Rosa is 16-5 in her career, but she most recently lost a decision to Norma Dumont in April of this year. She is 1-2 in her last three fights. Santos has a 14-7 record, but she dropped each of her last two fights against Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. Interestingly, Rosa is a -165 favorite despite stepping in for Macy Chiasson on short notice.
Rosa has a well-rounded skill set. She averages 5.58 significant strikes per minute and 1.43 takedowns per bout, and though she is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Rosa she has never finished a fight in the UFC. She has been submitted twice herself, but Rosa’s fights generally hit the judges.
Santos is pretty well rounded herself. She averages 3.82 significant strikes per minute and 1.28 takedowns per bout. Santos looks a little weaker on the ground, evidenced by her 45% takedown defense and two submission losses. She has actually been finished five times, raising durability concerns. She has also been controlled on the ground, allowing seven takedowns in her last two fights.
Rosa appears to have the edge on the ground. She also has higher output, which could land her rounds in the eyes of the judges. At -165 Rosa is a fine play, but Rosa by decision may offer better odds later in the week.
Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Odds
Kevin Lee: +165 | Rinat Fakhretdinov: -210
Former title challenger Kevin Lee makes his triumphant return to the UFC after a one-fight break in Eagle FC. He takes on Rinat Fakhretdinov as a +165 underdog. Before his win over Diego Sanchez in Eagle FC, Lee had lost four of his last five fights. However, most of those came against the top of the division. He gets an interesting opponent, with Fakhretdinov sitting at 20-1 in his professional career. Fakhretdinov has only fought twice in the UFC, but both were unanimous decision wins.
Lee comes from a wrestling background, but he has evolved into a well-rounded fighter at this point. Lee averages 3.19 takedowns per bout and defends at 75%. He has some strong finishing ability, with eight submissions and three knockouts in 19 professional wins. Interestingly, Lee has been submitted three times and knocked out once. He has the strength of schedule advantage too.
Fakhretdinov also is a strong wrestler. He landed 12 takedowns through his first two UFC fights and defended them at 100%. Some of his techniques have received criticism, which will be interesting to evaluate against a strong wrestler like Lee. He averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute on the feet. While his power might be deceiving, he does not offer much in terms of dynamic striking.
Fakhretdinov has an impressive record on paper. However, digging into the opponents reveals a strength of schedule comprised of fighters with losing records or making their debuts. Lee may have been on the wrong side of some recent bouts, but that still came against the top of the division. For that reason, Lee at +165 makes the most sense.
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds
Bruno Ferreira takes on late replacement Nursulton Ruziboev. Ferreira has a perfect 10-0 record after winning his UFC debut against Gregory Rodrigues in January of this year. Ruziboev makes his UFC debut with a 34-8-2-2 record. At 29 years old, fighting this many times is impressive. He currently boasts an eight-fight winning streak across various regional promotions.
Ferreira has been a lethal finisher to this point in his career. He has black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, with seven finishes by knockout and another three by submission. Ferreira lands 6.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.34. He has not shown any of his ground game in his UFC career, but his fights have not made it out of the first round. In fact, he has only fought into the second round twice in his career. This leaves the door open for cardio questions, but finishes matter more in the eyes of the UFC than anything else.
Ruziboev has a background in boxing and karate, and his fights rarely go to decisions. Ruziboev has 12 knockouts and 20 submission wins to his name. He certainly has an experience edge, but this will be a decent step up in competition for Ruziboev. Like Ferreira, Ruziboev has gas tank concerns, losing almost every fight that gets to the judges.
Overall, Ferreira comes into this fight as a -225 favorite over Ruziboev. While Ruziboev is a scary fade with his finishing ability, Ferreira holds a strength of schedule advantage and the superior wrestling. With the ability to win rounds, he should be favored here. For those getting deep, Ferreira by knockout should return some strong odds.
Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint Denis Odds
Ismael Bonfim: -300 | Benoit Saint Denis: +250
Ismael Bonfim faces Benoit Saint Denis as a -300 favorite. Bonfim has a 19-3 record and defeated Terrance McKinney via flying knee in his UFC debut. On the other side, Saint Denis has a 10-1 professional record and is 2-1 in the UFC. After dropping his debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, he rattled off two straight wins against Niklas Stolze and Gabriel Miranda.
Bonfim is a well-rounded fighter with nine knockouts, four submissions and six decisions. He is a high-output fighter, landing 5.34 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.65. On the ground, he averages 1.35 takedowns per bout, with 28% accuracy. All three of Bonfim’s losses came via submission.
Saint Denis has strong grappling credentials, with a black belt in judo. This is evidenced by his 3.36 takedowns landed per bout. He only has 30% takedown accuracy, but his takedown defense is a strength at 85%. He has a negative striking ratio, but that comes mainly from the dos Santos fight. Saint Denis has eight wins via submission and two via knockout.
Seeing Bonfim take on another strong grappler should be interesting. Bonfim’s biggest strength may actually come in striking exchanges. With that said, Bonfim needs to be wary of Saint Denis’ grappling strength. If he can defend the takedowns, he should be able to find the win.
Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto Odds
Ariane Lipski: +155 | Melissa Gatto: -190
Ariane Lipski enters this bout against Melissa Gatto as a +155 underdog. She has a 15-8 professional record and most recently defeated J.J. Aldrich via unanimous decision. She sits at 4-4 in the UFC. On the other side, Gatto has an 8-1 professional record and a 2-1 record in the UFC. She dropped a unanimous decision to Tracy Cortez in her previous fight last May.
Lipski is a Muay Thai striker, landing 3.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.97 herself. She also averages 0.47 takedowns per bout, with 42% accuracy. She has six wins via knockout and three by submission. She has been knocked out four times, including all three of her most recent losses.
On the other side, Gatto has a well-rounded skill set. She has two knockouts, four submissions and two decisions among her eight wins. Gatto lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.68 takedowns and 33% accuracy. Gatto held her own grappling with Cortez for the most part and should have a grappling advantage over Lipski.
Lipski has given up takedowns on occasion, which should be a path to victory for Gatto. While this fight is volatile, Gatto should earn a victory.
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales Odds
Max Griffin: +200 | Michael Morales: -250
Michael Morales is a -250 favorite over Max Griffin. Morales currently boasts a perfect 14-0 record and a 3-0 record in the UFC. He most recently defeated Adam Fugitt by knockout last July. Griffin has a 19-9 record and won his most recent fight against Tim Means last October. Prior to that, he lost a split decision to Neil Magny.
Morales is a lethal striker, with 11 of his 14 professional wins coming via knockout. He averages 5.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.1. Morales has some grappling ability, with 1.98 takedowns per bout. His takedown defense has also held up to this point in his career at 86%.
Now 37, Griffin comes from a kickboxing background. He lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.87. Griffin averages 1.6 takedowns, but this fight looks most likely to play out on the feet. He has been knocked out one time, but his fights most often go to decision.
Ultimately, this fight should probably have tighter odds. Morales deserves to be the favorite as the up-and-coming prospect, but he still has not fought legitimate competition. Griffin has gone toe to toe with the division’s best and is worth a sprinkle at +200.
Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Odds
Damir Ismagulov: -135 | Grant Dawson: +110
In the co-main event, Damir Ismagulov is a -135 favorite over Grant Dawson. Ismagulov has a 24-2 professional record and a 5-1 record in the UFC. After rattling off five wins to begin his career, he lost to Arman Tsarukyan via unanimous decision last December. Similarly, Dawson has a 19-1-1 record and is 8-0-1 in the UFC. He most recently submitted Mark Madsen in November.
Ismagulov is not always the most active fighter, but he has a complete game. Ismagulov lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.17 takedowns per bout and 75% takedown defense. However, Tsarukyan landed seven takedowns against him in his most recent bout. Ismagulov does his best work as a striker, evidenced by his 12 knockouts. To this point, he has never been finished.
On the other side, Dawson wins primarily through his ground game. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and lands 3.8 takedowns per bout, with 34% accuracy. Dawson does have 40% takedown defense, but he often welcomes the ground game. On the feet, he lands 3.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.41.
A stark difference in styles, Ismagulov will have the advantage on the feet and Dawson on the ground. Ismagulov has certainly faced the stiffer competition, but Dawson’s clear path to victory via submission should be worth a look later in the week.
Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov Odds
Sean Strickland: -175 | Abus Magomedov: +145
This is an interesting main event as Sean Strickland enters this bout as a -175 favorite over Abus Magomedov. Strickland has a 26-5 professional record and sits at 1-2 in his last three fights. His two losses came against the top of the division in Jared Cannonier and Alex Pereira, but he earned a unanimous decision victory over Nassourdine Imavov in his last fight. Conversely, Magomedov has a 25-4 professional record, but he only has one UFC fight. He knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in the first round of his UFC debut, but the lack of experience for a main event bout is noticeable.
Strickland has a well-rounded game and solid aggression. He lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25. Strickland also averages 1.04 takedowns per bout, with 64% accuracy. Strickland has fallen in love with his hands at times and has questionable game plans. That was clear in the Pereira fight, where he ended up getting knocked out. With that said, taking Cannonier to a split decision shows how talented Strickland truly is.
Magomedov’s UFC stats are impossible to evaluate after the quickness of his first victory. Magomedov does have 14 wins by knockout and six via submission. With that said, he has also been knocked out once and submitted twice in his career. His level of competition also is not anywhere near Strickland’s.
Getting knocked out by inferior competition does not bode well for Magomedov. In fact, his appearance in this caliber fight is a bit perplexing. The same can be said for the current odds. Strickland at -175 is a value on this card.
