Often times, the highest-paced fights for a UFC card come from the prelims, and UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov looks to trend that way as well. Today we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model, which analyzes the sharpest sportsbooks to find the best UFC bets. It especially comes in handy for betting prelim fights since often times these are fighters with less of a sample from which to glean information. With that in mind, let’s go through the Fight Night prelims and make the best UFC bets for Saturday.
UFC Fight Night Bets & Odds: Sean Strickland–Abus Magomedov
Guram Kutateladze vs. Elves Brener Odds
Guram Kutateladze: -550 | Elves Brener: +400
The prelims kick off with Guram Kutateladze taking on Elves Brener at 155 pounds. Kutateladze stands out as the largest favorite on the entire card at -550. At 12-3 overall, Kutateladze is making his third UFC appearance. He won a split decision against Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut before dropping his next fight via split decision last June to Damir Ismagulov. On the other side, Brenner will make his second UFC appearance after winning a split decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in February. Overall, he is 14-3 in his career.
Starting with Kutateladze, the Georgian Viking has a well-rounded skill set. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 4.37. Kutateladze has seven knockout wins out of 12 total victories. On the ground, he only averages 0.5 takedowns per bout, with 12% accuracy. However, he has faced some stiff competition in the grappling realm against Gamrot and Ismagulov. He still boasts 77% takedown defense and only allowed three minutes of control time against Gamrot. Gamrot landed five of 16 takedown attempts in that fight, but Kutateladze showed the ability to work back to his feet.
Brener is a submission specialist. Of his 14 wins, 11 came via submission. Wrestling is a question with Brener after going 0-4 on takedown attempts in his first UFC bout. He lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute, but his striking ratio is slightly negative. Brener has also faced much weaker competition than Kutateladze. However, Kutateladze has been submitted once in his career, at least leaving the door open for Brener.
Ultimately, the odds make sense given Kutateladze’s proven pedigree. While -550 is a lot of juice, he should get the job done. For those looking to reduce some juice, check out Kutateladze via decision later in the week.
Alexandr Romanov vs. Blagoy Ivanov Odds
Alexandr Romanov: -140 | Blagoy Ivanov: +115
After five straight wins to open his UFC career, the Alexandr Romanov hype train has been halted by two straight losses. Now sitting 16-2, Romanov will look to right the ship against Blagoy Ivanov. Ivanov comes into this fight with a 19-5 record, but he is now 1-3 in his last four fights. He is a -140 favorite for this heavyweight bout.
In his most recent bout, Romanov suffered a first-round knockout at the hands of Alexander Volkov in March. Romanov has solid wrestling for a heavyweight and averages 4.96 takedowns per bout, with 52% accuracy. Romanov only has 20% takedown defense, but opponents seldom challenge his wrestling. On the feet, Romanov has shown solid power, with six knockouts. He does not always throw the most, but opponents need to respect the power. Overall, Romanov generally wins with superior wrestling and submission skills.
As for Ivanov, the 36-year-old Bulgarian will have his second fight this year after losing a decision to Marcin Tybura in March. Ivanov has not been the most active fighter in his career, so this comes as a surprise. Ivanov is relatively well rounded. He lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute, but he has a negative striking ratio. He also averages 0.78 takedowns per bout, with 40% accuracy. Ivanov has been out-volumed in each of his last four fights, which is a concern. He has six wins by knockout, six via submission and seven by decision. Ivanov has seen the judges in each of his seven UFC bouts.
Being an aging fighter with low output means it is going to become increasingly hard for Ivanov to win decisions. With Romanov’s well-rounded skill set and strong wrestling, the favorite takes home a victory.
Ivana Petrovic vs. Luana Carolina Odds
Ivana Petrovic: -225 | Luana Carolina: +185
In the women’s flyweight division, Ivana Petrovic takes on Luana Carolina as a -225 favorite. Petrovic makes her UFC debut with a 6-0 record. She most recently fought in Ares FC. Carolina has an 8-4 record but far more UFC experience. She is 4-3 in the promotion but lost each of her last two fights.
Petrovic certainly has the weaker strength of schedule. However, she has shown herself to be a lethal finisher, with three knockouts and two submissions on the regional scene. Petrovic only debuted in MMA in 2021, making her green for the game. She appears to have a well-rounded skill set, leading to plenty of hype ahead of her debut.
Carolina is primarily a striker, landing 4.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.43. She has zero takedowns, but she defends them at 78%. With that said, she has been controlled on the mat at times. Molly McCann and Loopy Godinez notched over four and seven minutes of control time against Carolina. Carolina has been finished twice, but she generally wins via decision.
This is a tough fight to peg. Carolina has certainly faced the stiffer competition, and with much to be discovered regarding Petrovic, taking a stab on Carolina at +185 is not the craziest idea.
Yana Santos vs. Karol Rosa Odds
Yana Santos: +135 | Karol Rosa: -165
In the women’s Bantamweight division, Karol Rosa takes on Yana Santos as a -165 favorite. Rosa is 16-5 in her career, but she most recently lost a decision to Norma Dumont in April of this year. She is 1-2 in her last three fights. Santos has a 14-7 record, but she dropped each of her last two fights against Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. Interestingly, Rosa is a -165 favorite despite stepping in for Macy Chiasson on short notice.
Rosa has a well-rounded skill set. She averages 5.58 significant strikes per minute and 1.43 takedowns per bout, and though she is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Rosa she has never finished a fight in the UFC. She has been submitted twice herself, but Rosa’s fights generally hit the judges.
Santos is pretty well rounded herself. She averages 3.82 significant strikes per minute and 1.28 takedowns per bout. Santos looks a little weaker on the ground, evidenced by her 45% takedown defense and two submission losses. She has actually been finished five times, raising durability concerns. She has also been controlled on the ground, allowing seven takedowns in her last two fights.
Rosa appears to have the edge on the ground. She also has higher output, which could land her rounds in the eyes of the judges. At -165 Rosa is a fine play, but Rosa by decision may offer better odds later in the week.
Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov Odds
Kevin Lee: +165 | Rinat Fakhretdinov: -210
Former title challenger Kevin Lee makes his triumphant return to the UFC after a one-fight break in Eagle FC. He takes on Rinat Fakhretdinov as a +165 underdog. Before his win over Diego Sanchez in Eagle FC, Lee had lost four of his last five fights. However, most of those came against the top of the division. He gets an interesting opponent, with Fakhretdinov sitting at 20-1 in his professional career. Fakhretdinov has only fought twice in the UFC, but both were unanimous decision wins.
Lee comes from a wrestling background, but he has evolved into a well-rounded fighter at this point. Lee averages 3.19 takedowns per bout and defends at 75%. He has some strong finishing ability, with eight submissions and three knockouts in 19 professional wins. Interestingly, Lee has been submitted three times and knocked out once. He has the strength of schedule advantage too.
Fakhretdinov also is a strong wrestler. He landed 12 takedowns through his first two UFC fights and defended them at 100%. Some of his techniques have received criticism, which will be interesting to evaluate against a strong wrestler like Lee. He averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute on the feet. While his power might be deceiving, he does not offer much in terms of dynamic striking.
Fakhretdinov has an impressive record on paper. However, digging into the opponents reveals a strength of schedule comprised of fighters with losing records or making their debuts. Lee may have been on the wrong side of some recent bouts, but that still came against the top of the division. For that reason, Lee at +165 makes the most sense.
