The top of the UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov card has a few high-quality fights. As we break down these bigger bouts, we will use OddsShopper’s market-based betting model to find the best UFC bets for Saturday. Let’s get into the top of the Strickland-Magomedov card and find the value spots in each fight.
UFC Fight Night Bets & Odds: Styles Clashes at Top of the Card
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales Odds
Max Griffin: +200 | Michael Morales: -250
Michael Morales is a -250 favorite over Max Griffin. Morales currently boasts a perfect 14-0 record and a 3-0 record in the UFC. He most recently defeated Adam Fugitt by knockout last July. Griffin has a 19-9 record and won his most recent fight against Tim Means last October. Prior to that, he lost a split decision to Neil Magny.
Morales is a lethal striker, with 11 of his 14 professional wins coming via knockout. He averages 5.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.1. Morales has some grappling ability, with 1.98 takedowns per bout. His takedown defense has also held up to this point in his career at 86%.
Now 37, Griffin comes from a kickboxing background. He lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.87. Griffin averages 1.6 takedowns, but this fight looks most likely to play out on the feet. He has been knocked out one time, but his fights most often go to decision.
Ultimately, this fight should probably have tighter odds. Morales deserves to be the favorite as the up-and-coming prospect, but he still has not fought legitimate competition. Griffin has gone toe to toe with the division’s best and is worth a sprinkle at +200.
Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson Odds
Damir Ismagulov: -135 | Grant Dawson: +110
In the co-main event, Damir Ismagulov is a -135 favorite over Grant Dawson. Ismagulov has a 24-2 professional record and a 5-1 record in the UFC. After rattling off five wins to begin his career, he lost to Arman Tsarukyan via unanimous decision last December. Similarly, Dawson has a 19-1-1 record and is 8-0-1 in the UFC. He most recently submitted Mark Madsen in November.
Ismagulov is not always the most active fighter, but he has a complete game. Ismagulov lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.17 takedowns per bout and 75% takedown defense. However, Tsarukyan landed seven takedowns against him in his most recent bout. Ismagulov does his best work as a striker, evidenced by his 12 knockouts. To this point, he has never been finished.
On the other side, Dawson wins primarily through his ground game. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and lands 3.8 takedowns per bout, with 34% accuracy. Dawson does have 40% takedown defense, but he often welcomes the ground game. On the feet, he lands 3.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.41.
A stark difference in styles, Ismagulov will have the advantage on the feet and Dawson on the ground. Ismagulov has certainly faced the stiffer competition, but Dawson’s clear path to victory via submission should be worth a look later in the week.
Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov Odds
Sean Strickland: -175 | Abus Magomedov: +145
This is an interesting main event as Sean Strickland enters this bout as a -175 favorite over Abus Magomedov. Strickland has a 26-5 professional record and sits at 1-2 in his last three fights. His two losses came against the top of the division in Jared Cannonier and Alex Pereira, but he earned a unanimous decision victory over Nassourdine Imavov in his last fight. Conversely, Magomedov has a 25-4 professional record, but he only has one UFC fight. He knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in the first round of his UFC debut, but the lack of experience for a main event bout is noticeable.
Strickland has a well-rounded game and solid aggression. He lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25. Strickland also averages 1.04 takedowns per bout, with 64% accuracy. Strickland has fallen in love with his hands at times and has questionable game plans. That was clear in the Pereira fight, where he ended up getting knocked out. With that said, taking Cannonier to a split decision shows how talented Strickland truly is.
Magomedov’s UFC stats are impossible to evaluate after the quickness of his first victory. Magomedov does have 14 wins by knockout and six via submission. With that said, he has also been knocked out once and submitted twice in his career. His level of competition also is not anywhere near Strickland’s.
Getting knocked out by inferior competition does not bode well for Magomedov. In fact, his appearance in this caliber fight is a bit perplexing. The same can be said for the current odds. Strickland at -175 is a value on this card.
