We’re all waiting for UFC 300 to finally arrive, but this Saturday’s Fight Night is nothing to scoff at. Let’s get into our Billy Quarantillo-Youssef Zalal pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Billy Quarantillo-Youssef Zalal Pick, Odds and Preview
Quarantillo-Zalal Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Quarantillo: -105 | Zalal: -115
Quarantillo -3.5: +140 | Zalal +3.5: -185
Over 2.5: -270 | Under 2.5: +200
Quarantillo-Zalal Pick & Preview
The next fight up comes between Billy Quarantillo (18-5) and Youssef Zalal (13-5-1). Zalal looks to bounce back after a rough stretch. While I never like to see fighters go on long skids, I don’t see him winning in this one — we’re riding with Quarantillo in this spot.
One of Zalal’s main issues, particularly in his past four bouts, has been his lack of pace. All seven of his fights went to the cards. While he made it to the cards against the current champ, Ilia Topuria, a feat not achieved by many, overall, it’s cost him a few decisions. Put simply, a three-round fight is too short to consistently succeed with a low output absent an insane amount of knockout power.
Zalal’s pace is glacial. He only lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute and averages just over two takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Those rates aren’t enough for him to reliably win by decision, as he doesn’t give the judges enough to hang their hat on when scoring the bout.
One obvious benefit about his pace is that it mitigates the damage he takes — he absorbs only 1.75 significant strikes per minute. While that helps him avoid the knockout, it hurts him on the cards.
Quarantillo, on the other hand, has a ballistic pace. He lands 7.71 significant strikes per minute while getting 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes.
With his pressure, he does a good job of mitigating the damage he takes, only absorbing 5.61 significant strikes per minute. This would be a bit more concerning against a fighter with more power than Zalal, but in this one, his aggression will likely serve him well.
Quarantillo isn’t simply a knockout machine — he boasts a well-rounded game. Out of his 18 professional victories, eight came by knockout and five came by submission and decision. This will make it difficult for Zalal to find an edge if he can’t keep up on the feet.
I expect this one to be a solid fight, with Quarantillo winning comfortably. For those who want to juice the odds more on Quarantillo, riding with the spread or with him to win by knockout would be a way to do so.
Best UFC Quarantillo-Zalal Bet & Pick: Quarantillo ML -105 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Model
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Nguyen-Errens bout: SuperBook has Nguyen at outright odds of just -150, below the true odds of -158 and far below the odds at FanDuel (-188) and BetMGM (-185), making a wager on Nguyen a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95 per month, a far better deal than the $150+ our competitors charge!
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
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