With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues Pick, Odds and Preview
Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Tavares: +195 | Rodrigues: -265
Tavares +3.5: +100 | Rodrigues -3.5: -130
Over 2.5: -115 | Under 2.5: -115
Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues Pick & Preview
Brad Tavares (20-9) matches up with Gregory Rodrigues (14-5) in the third fight of the main card. The books heavily favor Rodrigues, but Tavares’ toughness will make it difficult for Rodrigues to finish him.
Given his experience in big fights against the top fighters in the division, I like Tavares in this one as a sizable underdog.
Tavares got himself a much-needed win in his last bout against the slumping former middleweight champion, Chris Weidman.
Despite losing some fights before that one, just three fights ago, he became the first person to take the current division champ, Dricus Du Plessis, to the scorecards. Du Plessis narrowly won that one by 29-28.
Nonetheless, it was still an impressive performance against a fighter that even the top contenders haven’t found an answer for.
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The shocking thing about Tavares is that the Du Plessis fight isn’t even an outlier when it comes to his losses. Out of his eight losses, three came to current or former middleweight champions: Du Plessis, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, each of whom are still currently ranked in the top five of the division.
Another loss came to Yoel Romero, who fought for the middleweight belt multiple times in his career. I’m not arguing that Tavares is an elite fighter who can contend with champions at this point in his career, but Rodrigues is a far cry from the caliber of these fighters.
Part of Tavares’ success stems from his defensive ability. He only absorbs 3.03 significant strikes per minute and defends the takedown at an eye-popping 82% rate. This tendency has helped him limit damage taken, only getting finished four times out of his 23 fights.
To ride with Rodrigues as such a substantial favorite would essentially be placing him in the upper echelon of contenders. Outside of the elite group of fighters in the middleweight division, Tavares has fared well, and I expect that to continue on Saturday.
Best UFC Brad Tavares-Gregory Rodrigues Pick: Brad Tavares ML +190 at DraftKings
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