Before we get to UFC 300, we’ve got UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 on the docket. Let’s get into our Brendan Allen-Chris Curtis pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Brendan Allen-Chris Curtis Pick, Odds and Preview
Allen-Curtis Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Allen: -225 | Curtis: +165
Allen -5.5: -130 | Curtis +5.5: +100
Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: +130
Allen-Curtis Pick & Preview
In the main event, middleweights Brendan Allen (23-5) and Chris Curtis (31-10) are set to clash for the second time. In the first matchup, Curtis secured a finish in the second round. While I like Curtis’ aggression to help him overcome the odds as an underdog, the under provides a stronger edge.
Neither fighter is a stranger to early stoppages. Allen’s career average fight time sits at 8:40 while Curtis’ is 10:59, which is comfortably below the 12:30 seconds we need for the under. The length of the fight may influence the pace in the early rounds, but Middleweights don’t tend to have the same cardio issues as Light Heavyweights and Heavyweights. Taking a slower approach in the early rounds may work for some fighters, but it isn’t always prudent.
Curtis’ main advantage comes with his aggression on the feet. Curtis lands 5.96 significant strikes per minute compared to Allen’s 3.87. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Curtis push the pace to get Allen out of his comfort zone.
If successful, Allen won’t have any choice but to match the pace until Curtis is forced to back off. Curtis’ aggression helped him crack Allen’s chin in the first bout, finishing it in the first half of the second round.
Where Allen shines is on the mat. He won eight of his 14 matchups in the Octagon, including his bout on the Contender Series, by submission.
This is an area of Curtis’ game that hasn’t been tested, as he boasts a 92% takedown defense rate. However, it is likely the only area Allen will be able to find an advantage, as he only has three decision victories and one knockout to round out his 12 UFC wins.
The main issue with being so grappling dependent is that it will require Allen to put himself in vulnerable positions if the takedown isn’t coming easy. This could give Curtis the opening necessary to crack him with a heavy shot and end the fight early. However, with the bookmakers favoring Allen, they likely expect the fight to find its way to the ground. If it does, Curtis will be in constant danger.
In sum, 10 of Allen’s 14 bouts have gone under 2.5 rounds (71%). For his part, Curtis’ fights went under 2.5 rounds five times out of nine (56%). Combined, 65% of their bouts went under the set line. Given the odds, the implied probability the fight goes under 2.5 rounds sits at 42.5%. While the length of the fight may affect the odds, I don’t see it as being so substantial to overcome a 24% edge.
Best UFC Allen-Curtis Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 +135 at DraftKings
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