With a stacked UFC 300 card on tap this evening, let’s get right into our Calvin Kattar-Aljamain Sterling pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Calvin Kattar-Aljamain Sterling Pick, Odds and Preview
Kattar-Sterling Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Kattar: +140 | Sterling: -185
Kattar +3.5: -170 | Sterling -3.5: +130
Over 2.5: -200 | Under 2.5: +154
Kattar-Sterling Pick & Preview
In yet another prelim bout featuring a former champion, Aljamain Sterling (23-4) makes the jump to featherweight to take on Calvin Kattar (23-7). Though he is coming off a loss to Sean O’Malley, I expect Sterling to come back in a big way with a dominant performance against Kattar.
Let’s get the concern about the weight class out of the way first. Yes, Aljo is jumping up a class, which could impact his wrestling, on which he leans heavily. No, this won’t be a big factor. Aljo is massive both for the Bantamweight and Featherweight divisions. He stated his walk-around weight (his normal weight before the cut) is anywhere between 170 to 175 pounds. This is 35-40 pounds higher than his previous class, and 25-30 pounds clear of the featherweight limit.
Generally, fighters cut anywhere from 15-20 pounds depending on the weight class, so Aljo is even a bit bigger than anticipated. Obviously, the ten extra pounds help against smaller fighters, but Aljo will in no way be a small featherweight.
Stylistically speaking, many anticipate the fight to be a stylistic clash, with Kattar having the advantage on the feet and Aljo having an advantage on the ground. However, I don’t know how justified this assumption is, as Aljo’s striking is a bit underrated and Kattar’s is a bit overrated in my view.
Let’s start with the raw numbers. Aljo lands 4.73 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy while only absorbing 2.41 significant strikes per minute, defending successfully 58% of the time. These aren’t the numbers that a one-dimensional wrestler usually displays. While he may not be the caliber of striker Sean O’Malley is, he can still win fights on the feet.
To break it down even further, in his recent fights, he outstruck Henry Cejudo (103/174 to 82/152), T.J. Dillashaw (17/30 to 8/26), and Pedro Munhoz (172/338 to 102/257), excluding ground strikes. Even in his two fights with Petr Yan, he was only outstruck either marginally or by efficiency (79/207 to 64/106 and 42/84 to 46/80).
Those datapoints came against some of the best strikers in the UFC, who can both cause extensive damage and avoid taking damage back. Kattar certainly can do the former, but the latter is where he struggles.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
Kattar lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute but he absorbs 7.10 per minute. A large part of this comes from his inefficient striking. Kattar only lands a paltry 39% of his significant strikes, meaning he has to stay in the pocket for significantly longer to land the number of strikes he does.
One thing Kattar has going for him is his toughness. I don’t expect Aljo to knock him out, but I think Aljo will win on the feet, by making Kattar whiff, and countering him well. With Aljo’s strong grappling ability, I expect this one to be a dominant win from start to finish. I’m riding with Aljo on the moneyline and recommend laddering it with the spread to boost the odds just a bit.
Best UFC Kattar-Sterling Bet & Pick: Sterling ML -185 at DraftKings
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