With a big UFC 297 day ahead, let’s get to our Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson Pick, Odds and Preview
Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson Odds
UFC 297 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Jourdain: -205 | Woodson: +170
Jourdain -3.5: -125 | Woodson +3.5: -105
Over 2.5: -145 | Under 2.5: +114
Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson Pick & Preview
I expect a longer fight in this prelim bout between Canadian local Charles Jourdain (15-6-1) and Sean Woodson (10-1-1).
While the books have favored the over 2.5 rounds slightly, there is still an edge to be had given the fighters’ lengthy histories of going deep into their bouts.
Both Jourdain and Woodson are high-output strikers, landing shots at a clip of 5.71 and 5.41 significant strikes per minute, respectively.
However, this has rarely translated in finishes for either side, as they have only combined for a total of five stoppage victories in their eighteen combined UFC fights for a rate of 27.8%.
Their inability to find stoppages relative to the amount of shots they throw likely has to do with the way they mix their shots up and their efficiency to the body and legs.
The most extreme example of this in action can be seen in Jourdain’s fight against Andre Ewell, in which he landed 95 significant strikes in the bout for a rate of 6.33 per minute.
However, only 42 of these strikes landed to the head, good for around 2.8 head strikes per minute.
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While there are less drastic examples for each fighter, leg and body strikes account for around one significant strike per minute in each of their fights. These strikes are certainly helpful strategically, but they aren’t exactly knockout shots, which helps to explain the disparity between the number of shots thrown to knockouts attained.
Neither Jourdain nor Woodson are particularly keen on grappling too often, either. While Jourdain has two submission victories, he only procures 0.10 takedowns every fifteen minutes of fight time.
In total, fourteen of the fighters’ eighteen combined UFC fights have gone past the halfway point of the second round. With the odds for over 2.5 rounds set at -145 for an implied probability of just under 60%, a patient bettor looking for a long fight can find an edge on the over.
Best UFC Charles Jourdain-Sean Woodson Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -145 at DraftKings
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