With a loaded UFC 300 card on tap, bettors have a ton of fights to get action down on. Let’s dive into our Charles Oliveira-Arman Tsarukyan pick, odds and preview, breaking down one spot bettors should plan to exploit for UFC 300. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Charles Oliveira-Arman Tsarukyan Pick, Odds and Preview
Oliveira–Tsarukyan Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Oliveira: +175 | Tsarukyan: -240
Oliveira +3.5: +120 | Tsarukyan -3.5: -165
Over 1.5: -130 | Under 1.5: +100
Oliveira–Tsarukyan Pick & Preview
In yet another banger fight, Charles Oliveira (34-9) takes on the ever-dangerous Arman Tsarukyan (21-3). With his devastating knockout of Beneil Dariush in his last fight, Tsarukyan cemented his name firmly in the contender discussion.
He looks to be the real deal, but he doesn’t have the track record to warrant his status as such a substantial favorite over Oliveira. I’m riding with Oliveira as the underdog to take some wind out of Tsarukyan’s sails.
In 2017, something changed in Oliveira’s approach. After wavering between wins and losses early in his career, he became a machine, rattling off 11 wins, and 12 of 13, en route to an interim, then a unified title. His only loss came to the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, Islam Makhachev. Despite the loss, he bounced right back with a first-round KO of Beneil Dariush.
Tsarukyan is certainly a worthy opponent and has a strong chance of winning this fight. However, the books seem to herald his ascendance a tad too quickly. To have him as a slight underdog or even with Oliveira would be fair, in my view, but to be a -240 favorite is too strong. Let’s not forget that Tsarukyan dropped a five-round decision to Mateusz Gamrot just four fights ago.
Losing to a fighter like Gamrot can happen, but Oliveira is even a level above him. Tsarukyan bounced back with three solid wins, including an impressive performance against Beneil Dariush. The only times Tsarukyan faced a test, he lost, once to Makhachev and once to Gamrot.
Tsarukyan relies on aggressive grappling and devastating power to take his opponents out. On the feet, he has a relatively slow pace for a lightweight, landing just 3.85 significant strikes per minute. This helps him avoid damage, at least to this point, as he only absorbs 1.91 significant strikes per minute, but I expect to see those numbers go up as he faces a fighter of Oliveira’s caliber.
Where Tsarukyan shines is with his grappling, as he secures 3.40 takedowns per 15. Nonetheless, Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu may be too dangerous for Tsarukyan to gain a substantial advantage with his grappling, as Oliveira secured 16 submission victories in the Octagon.
Oliveira also has dynamite in his hands, leading to four knockouts in his past 13 fights. While his pace is also relatively slow, only landing 3.54 significant strikes per minute, he is also incredibly dangerous. Neither Tsarukyan nor Oliveira will be able to let their guard down for a second or they could be laid out on the mat instantly.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
I have a lot of respect for both fighters and could see either of them winning by pretty much any method. In a pick’em, I may lean towards Tsarukyan given his knockout power, but it’s hard to pick against Oliveira’s experience. Luckily, the odds being so slanted against Oliveira makes my decision here easy.
Best UFC Oliveira-Tsarukyan Bet & Pick: Oliveira ML +175 at DraftKings
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