With a big UFC 297 day ahead, let’s get to our Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Pick, Odds and Preview
Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Odds
UFC 297 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Curtis: -195 | Barriault: +145
Curtis -3.5: -105 | Barriault +3.5: -125
Over 2.5: -166 | Under 2.5: +130
Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Pick & Preview
Chris Curtis (30-10) and Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6) each come into this bout having experienced ups and downs throughout their career.
Barriault seeks to continue his solid run after losing his first three UFC fights, while Curtis hopes to recapture his early success after a loss to Kelvin Gastelum and what was likely to be a loss to Nassourdine Imavov before a clash of heads ended the fight early.
With each fighter refusing to take the fight to the ground, and their high striking rate, there is real value in betting the under on the total rounds market.
It would be a surprise to see either fighter attempt a takedown for as long as the bout lasts, save for a desperation attempt if one of them gets rocked. In his seven career fights, Curtis has yet to procure a single takedown.
Barriault does not outpace him by much, only securing two takedowns in his 11 fights. Without lengthy grappling exchanges to sop up minutes of the clock, the threat of a knockout will permeate throughout the entire 15-minute bout.
Let’s dig deeper.
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What the fighters lack in grappling pressure, they make up for in striking aggression. Barriault lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute at a 47% rate, while Curtis lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute at a 50% clip. Without much time to disengage, the fight will likely hang on a razor’s edge for much of its runtime, especially since neither fighter defends strikes well. Both fighters absorb over five significant strikes per minute, with Curtis getting tagged at an astounding 6.3 significant strikes per minute.
The potential for this fight to end early is reflected in each fighter’s career. Out of their sixteen UFC fights, excluding the two no-contests, eight have ended before the halfway point of the final round. With the implied odds for the under 2.5 rounds sitting at around 44%, the books have left a slight edge for us given this history. The edge gets wider when accounting for the fighters’ styles.
Curtis and Barriault had eight fights against fighters who landed more than four significant strikes per minute in their career. Of these eight fights, five have ended under two and a half rounds for a rate of 62.5%. The rate ticks up to 66.7% when considering Curtis’ lone bout on the Dana White contender series, which ended early in the third round against a high-output striker in Sean Lally. While the sample size is small, the numbers suggest this fight will end earlier than the books anticipate.
Best Chris Curtis-Marc-Andre Barriault Pick: Under 2.5 +130 at DraftKings
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