With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Geoff Neal-Ian Garry pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Geoff Neal-Ian Garry Pick, Odds and Preview
Geoff Neal-Ian Garry Odds
UFC 298 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Neal: -195 |Garry: -260
Neal +3.5: -105 | Garry -3.5: -125
Over 2.5: -140 | Under 2.5: +110
Geoff Neal-Ian Garry Pick & Preview
It appears that someone in the UFC matchmaking department has a bone to pick with Geoff Neal (14-5). Coming off his loss against undefeated prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov, Neal gets another undefeated prospect in Ian Garry (13-0).
Each fighter possesses incredible power and throws at such a high output that riding with the under seems to give the best edge here.
Geoff Neal has the nickname “Handz of Steel” for a reason. In his war with Shavkat, each fighter was visibly rocked at various times throughout the fight.
Neal’s biggest weakness in his striking comes when he has to worry about the takedown, as every high-level grappler he faced was able to outstrike him.
Whether it’s simply a mental block or a strategic flaw, Neal doesn’t have to be worried about either in his fight with Neal, who gets less than one takedown per three-round fight.
When Neal doesn’t have to worry about the takedown, he applies pressure on the feet, landing 5.22 significant strikes per minute. This has its drawbacks, as he also absorbs 5.60 significant strikes per minute. You can expect Ian Garry to try to take advantage of this as he already lands 6.67 significant strikes per minute. It’s unlikely that either fighter will look to take the fight to the ground unless it’s wide open.
Without long periods of control time, and each fighter’s heavy pressure, it’s likely that a lot of the fight will be spent in the pocket exchanging heavy strikes. While neither fighter has been knocked out to this point in their career, a war on the feet is never a recipe for going the distance, particularly with each fighter’s power.
In Neal’s eleven fights, including his appearance on the Contender Series, only four went to decision, and only five went over two and a half rounds. Of these five, two were against prolific grapplers, Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov, both of which had over five minutes of control time and another came against Belal Muhammad who goes to decision in the vast majority of his fights.
Garry doesn’t fit the mold of any of these fighters. For his part, three of Garry’s six UFC fights ended before the final bell, two of which ended in the first round. Of their seventeen combined fights, ten ended in finishes, for a rate of 58%. It’s safer to bet on the fight not to go to decision, which sits at -125 at Draftkings, but I would play this as a ladder with the under 2.5 at +110.
Best Geoff Neal-Ian Garry Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds, +110 at DraftKings.
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