It’s Saturday, and with UFC 300 still looming on the horizon, that means non-stop UFC action until the big day. We’re up to the final pay-per-view card before the big event. Let’s dive into to our Gilbert Burns-Jack Della Maddalena pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Gilbert Burns-Jack Della Maddalena Pick, Odds and Preview
Burns–Della Maddalena Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Burns: +135 | Della Maddalena: -175
Burns +3.5: -110 | Della Maddalena -3.5: -120
Over 2.5: +124 | Under 2.5: -160
Burns–Della Maddalena Pick & Preview
In the next fight, perennial contender Gilbert Burns (22-6) takes on Jack Della Maddalena (16-2), who looks to stamp himself firmly in the title picture. Each fighter possesses devastating power and can end the fight in an instant. Nonetheless, with the odds slanting comfortably towards the under, there appears to be an edge on the over.
Both Burns and JDM are incredibly dangerous on the feet. This power enabled each to win by knockout three times in their UFC careers. Burns also has quite impressive grappling skills, winning five times by submission. However, the danger they pose at any given moment is overshadowing the fact they go to the scorecards more often than expected.
In their combined 28 fights, these fighters have gone to decision 14 times (50%). Burns is particularly prone to taking the fight to the bell, doing so in 11 of his 21 UFC fights. This helps to keep him near the top of the division even in losses.
Though he lost his bout to Khamzat Chimaev, one of the most hyped fighters in the UFC at the time, bringing it to a close decision was seen as somewhat of a win. His toughness allows him to stay in fights that he may lose, but it doesn’t bode well for the under.
Outside of Burns’ toughness, his low striking output and grappling-oriented approach tend to draw the fight out longer. Burns only lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute to go along with 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
JDM will look to pressure Burns, as he lands a whopping 7.20 significant strikes per minute, but his pace could be slowed dramatically if Burns seeks to engage in long grappling exchanges.
JDM’s dominance on the feet was somewhat blunted in his last two fights. JDM went to the cards against both Bassil Hafes and Kevin Holland, each of which ended in close split decisions. With all due respect to each of these fighters, they just aren’t on Burns’ level. To take Burns out early, JDM will need to make a huge leap. It’s certainly possible, but given that 15 of their 28 fights (54%) went over 2.5 rounds, it’s not something I’m counting on happening.
Best Burns-Della Maddalena Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +124 at DraftKings
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