With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Gilbert Urbina-Charles Radtke pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Gilbert Urbina-Charles Radtke Pick, Odds and Preview
Gilbert Urbina-Charles Radtke Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Urbina: -210 | Radtke: +155
Urbina -3.5: -130 | Radtke +3.5: +100
Over 2.5: +124 | Under 2.5: -160
Gilbert Urbina-Charles Radtke Pick & Preview
Gilbert Urbina (7-3) and Charles Radtke (8-3) square off in the first fight of the main card in a bout between two prospects looking to make a name for themselves.
With each fighter showing a willingness to bring the fight to the ground in their UFC bouts, and their history of going to the cards in nearly half their professional bouts, the over 2.5 rounds is a solid play and offers you some breathing room should the fight end in the closing minutes.
So, let’s break some of this down in a digestible form.
In his UFC debut, Radtke looked for takedowns often while battling through a bad eye injury. While he only attained one takedown on six attempts, he procured over nine minutes of control time in the 15-minute bout, grinding it down to a long decision victory.
With such a slow pace, it shouldn’t be surprising that he landed only 2.33 significant strikes per minute. With Urbina displaying strength and aggression on the feet in his previous two UFC fights, Radtke will likely stick to a similar game plan to try and win on the cards.
But wait… there’s more!
OddsShopper’s Model ROI | Why You Should Be Placing MORE Bets
In this simulation of our NBA betting tools, bettors who maxed out their bankrolls profited MORE than those who placed only 40 bets, but all still secured a significant positive return.
For his part, Urbina is no stranger to grappling, and he embraces it as a big part of his game. In his first fight, a submission loss against Bryan Battle, Urbina attempted six takedowns and procured two of them before succumbing to a rear-naked choke. In his knockout win against Orion Cosce, he secured takedowns on both of his attempts and controlled over three minutes of fight time in the eight-minute bout.
Both of Urbina’s UFC fights didn’t make it to the third round, but they are more outliers than indicators of a predictable trend. For example, his submission loss stands as the only such loss in his nine professional fights, and his victory over Cosce was only his second knockout. Even more telling about his win against Cosce was that it came from a teep kick to the body that broke his opponent’s rib. While this demonstrates Urbina has real power in his strikes, it’s such a rare method of victory that betting on it to happen again would be a fool’s errand. Before these unique outcomes, four of Urbina’s seven professional fights went to decision.
In total, 45% of Radtke’s and Urbina’s 20 combined professional fights went to decision. While this has an edge on the implied odds of decision (40%), I would take the half-round buffer and play the over 2.5 rounds at +124. Either option offers an edge, but with Urbina’s aggression, there is always a chance he finds a late knockout, especially if he gets controlled on the ground in the first two rounds.
Gilbert Urbina-Charles Radtke Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +124 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more UFC predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down every fight, so make sure to check out the rest of our MMA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
