After a long series of less-than-stellar fight nights, UFC 300 has finally arrived, and boy, is this card a banger. Let’s discuss our Holly Holm-Kayla Harrison pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Holly Holm-Kayla Harrison Pick, Odds and Preview
Holm-Harrison Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight
Holm: +340 | Harrison: -440
Holm +3.5: +140 | Harrison -3.5: -185
Over 2.5: -145 | Under 2.5: +114
Holm-Harrison Pick & Preview
The preacher’s daughter, Holly Holm (15-6) looks to spoil Kayla Harrison’s (16-1) UFC debut. Even at her age, there are very few people Holm should be a +340 underdog to, and this is especially true for a person making their debut on the biggest stage the UFC has to offer. I’m riding with Holm to shock the world and take home a great victory.
Holm enters this fight as a massive underdog to an Olympic champion in Judo. Where have we seen this before? Harrison’s striking may well be better than Ronda Rousey’s, but where she will really shine is in the clinch and grappling exchanges. These are areas Holm historically defends well in, and I expect this fight to be no different. She defends the takedown at a 78% clip, and in watching her fights, she has good instincts and balance for a striker by nature.
On the feet, I anticipate Holm to have a decided advantage. Even though her best days are likely well behind her, her elite boxing will likely be too much to overcome for a fighter that didn’t train in striking for much of her development.
Admittedly, there isn’t much data to go off of here. Harrison has no data in the UFC, and the data she has in the PFL has question marks attached to it. Put simply, it’s hard to determine how her performance will translate in the UFC given the lower caliber of fighters in the PFL.
Holm has fought a murderer’s row of the best women fighters in her weight class, and I expect that experience to help carry the day. Further, Harrison has to cut nearly 40 pounds to make weight. It may help, as she’ll be bigger than Holm, but it’s a cut she’s not used to making and could drain her energy more than anticipated.
Ultimately, the lack of data may make this fight worth sitting out as well, but making the jump to the UFC is historically a difficult transition, particularly in the marquee MMA event of the next half-decade.
Best UFC Holm-Harrison Bet & Pick: Holm ML +340 at DraftKings
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