With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer Pick, Odds and Preview
Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Hermansson: +195 | Pyfer: -275
Hermansson +5.5: +150 | Pyfer -5.5: -200
Over 2.5: +150 | Under 2.5: -160
Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer Pick & Preview
Jack Hermansson (23-8) and Joe Pyfer (12-2) come into their main event bout on completely different trajectories.
Hermansson is on a bit of a roller coaster of late, alternating between wins against a cast of solid fighters and respectable performances against the top contenders in the division.
On the other hand, Pyfer entered the UFC on a tear, with three straight wins since his time in the Dana White’s Contender Series, all coming early in the fight. With each fighter having a demonstrated ability to end the fight on a moment’s notice, laddering the under seems to produce the largest edge for this one.
In Pyfer’s 14 professional MMA fights, it’s unbelievable that he went to the scorecards only once: his second fight. Outside of that bout, he hasn’t even gotten to the third round in the remaining 13.
His unique balance of knockout power and grappling ability gives his opponents very few weaknesses to exploit. This has allowed him to amass an impressive eight knockouts and three submissions in his professional career, and that pace hasn’t slowed down since he entered the UFC.
OddsShopper Premium has identified this bet from the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer as a +EV pick due to the odds disparity between SuperBook and the rest of the market. For more picks, including picks for the NBA and other sports, subscribe today!
However, Hermansson is no slouch, and he boasts a similar combination of grappling and striking that has allowed him to procure six finishes in his 10 UFC victories, with three coming by knockout and three coming by submission. His high output of 5.13 significant strikes landed per minute, combined with 1.66 takedowns per 15, is tailor-made to carve stronger opponents down and take out lower-ranked opponents early. However, Hermansson also opens himself up with his pressure and has succumbed to three knockouts and one submission.
While Hermansson averages longer fights than Pyfer, banking on a decision isn’t a good strategy in this one. In Hermansson’s 16 UFC fights, he has only gone to the cards six times (37.5%). This rate is slightly higher than what he has recorded in his professional career with only nine of his 31 fights reaching the final bell (29%). His finishes come later than Pyfer’s, but eight of his 16 UFC bouts ended before the halfway mark of the second round, with two more ending before the halfway mark of the third.
Combined, 13 of the fighters’ 21 fights in the octagon ended before the halfway mark of the second (61.9%), and 15 ended before the halfway mark of the third (71%). These aren’t outliers when taking into account their full professional careers: 27 of their 45 combined professional fights ended in under 7:30 minutes (60%) and 29 of them didn’t make it past 12:30 minutes (64%).
Overall, there is value in playing the under for both the 1.5 and 2.5, as their implied probabilities sit at around 45% and 60%, respectively. For bettors wanting a long-shot bet, a small amount on the under 0.5 at +450 is a decent play given these fighters’ propensities to finish fights early.
Best UFC Jack Hermansson-Joe Pyfer Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +120 & Under 2.5 Rounds -160 at DraftKings
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