UFC 302 is here, and while the pay-per-view card features plenty of big-name fighters, the prelims are solid as well. Let’s get into our Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov Pick, Odds and Preview
Almeida–Romanov Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Almeida: -350 | Romanov: +240
Almeida -3.5: -225 | Romanov +3.5: +165
Over 1.5: -115 | Under 1.5: -110
Almeida–Romanov Pick & Preview
The penultimate fight on the prelims matches Jailton Almeida (20-3) up against Olympic wrestler Alexandr Romanov (17-2). Nobody has had answers for Jailton Almeida’s grappling outside of Curtis Blaydes, who was able to beat him via KO.
I expect that to change, given Romanov’s wrestling background. While it will likely be a grappling chess match, Romanov’s ability to strike on the feet could help give him the edge if the fight goes to the cards.
Almeida has made it clear what his gameplan is in each of his eight fights in the Octagon. He will drag his opponent to the ground and submit them with his high-level grappling. Yet even Almeida himself might be surprised to learn that he’s only landed 10 strikes on the feet from distance in all his fights combined. No, that’s not a typo. He averages less than two strikes per fight on the feet.
Even accounting for his ground strikes, Almeida only lands a sluggish 2.54 significant strikes per minute. His inability was on full display against Curtis Blaydes when he attained nine takedowns in less than six minutes but was knocked out early in the second to lose the fight.
Against an Olympic-level wrestler, the takedowns won’t come so easy. Romanov’s takedown defense numbers look shockingly poor, only sporting a 20% success rate. However, the only time an opponent attempted to take him down was in his third UFC fight against Juan Espino, who landed four of his five attempts. Since then, his opponents haven’t tried to test him, either because they know they’ll run into a brick wall, or because they’re stuck on their backs trying to get up.
Romanov takes his opponents down 4.32 times per 15 minutes of fight-time. While this may play into Almeida’s hands, bringing Romanov in so that he can seek a submission, even from the bottom, it will also allow Romanov to land some heavy ground and pound.
One thing we haven’t seen from Almeida is his ability to absorb strikes. He only absorbs 0.74 significant strikes per minute, and the only fight he was out landed was his KO loss against Blaydes.
It’s almost certain that a good deal of this fight will be spent on the ground. Nonetheless, Romanov should have a decided edge in the moments the fight stays on the feet. He lands a respectable 4.06 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.20. Even if he was a below-average striker, he wouldn’t be conceding much to Almeida.
Overall, I like Romanov at such long odds to keep it even or better in grappling exchanges, while winning on the feet.
Best UFC Almeida-Romanov Bet & Pick: Romanov Moneyline +240 at DraftKings
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