The early prelims will come to a thunderous conclusion with a bout between Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano. It’s a Lightweight bout, but both fighters can produce impressive finishes. Let’s get into our Jalin Turner-Renato Moicano pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jalin Turner-Renato Moicano Pick, Odds and Preview
Turner–Moicano Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Turner: -250 | Moicano: +180
Turner -3.5: -185 | Moicano +3.5: +140
Over 1.5: +100 | Under 1.5: -130
Turner–Moicano Pick & Preview
The final fight of the early prelims comes between Jalin Turner (14-7) and Renato Moicano (18-5-1). Both fighters can finish fights quickly, and while they both account for their fair share of first-round finishes, the odds for the under 1.5 give a bit too much credence to their finishing ability.
Betting the over in a fight that features Jalin Turner can always make you feel like a fool. His power is nothing to mess around with, and he can end the fight instantly. Nonetheless, the numbers are what they are.
In his UFC bouts after the contender series, Turner went past the halfway point of the second round five times out of 11 (45%). Only three of these went to decision, so it’s only a matter of time before he finishes the fight at some point, but he still can be drawn into the second round before ending it.
For his part, nine of Moicano’s 15 UFC bouts ended in the second half of the fight (60%). In total, 14 of their combined 26 fights went past the halfway mark of the bout (54%). The implied probability of the over sits at around 50%, which provides us with a bit of an edge.
The edge on the raw numbers doesn’t account for Moicano’s likely game plan in this one. Moicano attains 1.8 takedowns per 15, which would serve him well against Turner’s power. Turner defends the takedown solidly, at a rate of around 75%, but Moicano has a black belt in both Jiu Jitsu and Muay Thai. Even if he doesn’t land a clean double-leg takedown, he can still get a body lock or engage in the clinch to avoid Turner’s knockout power.
It’s certainly possible Moicano finishes Turner early with a submission if the fight finds its way to the ground, but the more present danger seems to be Turner’s power, as the books list him at -135 to win by KO/TKO. Moicano’s experience can help to neutralize a bit of this danger.
Overall, I don’t expect this fight to go to the cards, but I think there’s a strong chance it gets past the halfway mark. Turner can always make me look like a fool in this prediction if he lands a clean shot, but that just goes to the unpredictability of the sport.
Best UFC Turner-Moicano Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 +100 at DraftKings
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